It would be nice to get reading succestions addressing the topic why modelling societies and their dynamic developments may fail. What are the challenges and pitfalls when one attempts to create models that aim to forecast the future developments. Economic literature, system dynamic approaches, predictive social science may address these issues with modelling. I'm looking for good entry points to these discussion.
I don't believe that this claim is true. It all depends on the model being built. May I recommend the model I use, which is described in my SSRN 2865571 "Einstein's Criterion Applied to Logical Macroeconomics Modelling"? In the references there is my book which further develops this model and shows how it can be applied analytically. It does not (yet) develop society but it can be used for this. This book is for free as an e-book. Write to me at [email protected] for a copy.
I wish to point out however, that any reasonable model of society has the same problem because we have no means for forecasting the next macroeconomics change or phenomena, which will arrive to upset our social system and influence how it develops.
I thinks you can begin by the definition of ... strategy.
Most people and organisations confuse strategy with the direction of development. This direction of development could be your topic.
The practical work starts with a clear Big Picture.
Now, if a society support a development model (states like to call it 5,10,20 years strategies) or not is like... career planning.
You end up doing something else than initially desired, and than pick a story to justify it :)
David Harold Chester I shall check the paper on your profile. Thanks!
Anamaria Popescu Yes I quess strategic literature would deal this questions also when they address why strategies tend to go awry. I will have to walk to the strategic leadership department to ask their views on this matter.
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