Why not Germany or UK as the most powerful powerhouses, communication and transport centers of Europe and the world?
We do not know where patient 0 in Italy came from.
But in Italy Covid-19 was detected rather late and Italy has close-knit families also with elders.
SARS-2 mostly affects the elders and Italy has more than 12,000 infected and more than 1,000 death cases...
But Spain now is also affected and it came later there...
In Germany we have 2,500 infected and "only" 5 deaths yet (our detection was better, but the wave was later and our health system is geared up, but also has limitations)...
Everything started in China.
Italy came much later.
But in Iran there is also a strong outbreak...
We do not know how it spread from China (Through Iran?) to Italy...
And if it is in Iran what about India, Pakistan and Afghanistan?
Do they test at all???
Public life all over the continent (mainland Europe) slows down: Schools and Kindergardens closed in Belgium, Austria, Germany, Switzerland... 79 deaths in France, 122 deaths in Spain, 1,266 deaths in Italy... https://ncov2019.live/data Germany's Soccer Leage (Bundesliga) cancelled all matches at last. Real Madrid is in Quarantain. European Football association stopps games. European Football Championchips, Olympic summer Games under threat... Volleyball, Ice hockey, Basketball, everything stopps. Austria is eving closing shops, the downtown shopping malls are deserted in Italy and Austria...
Spain is now affected heavily.
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Vadim, good remark.
again about data and its source; the best site is considered to be the interactive map from Johns Hopkins Universty and they are also pooling data from the WHO and various source, see their FAQs
"What are the sources of data informing the dashboard?
The data sources include the World Health Organization, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, local media reports, local health departments, and the DXY, one of the world’s largest online communities for physicians, health care professionals, pharmacies and facilities."Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map-faq.html NB: Data on corona virus spread is only as good as the number of suspected cases are really tested andm the government is not trying to cover data from the public...
Dear researchers have a nice Sunday. My question regard the nature of Lombardia (N. Italy) Coronavirus: its death rate is not compatible with COVID19 but with SARS. WHY??? >> see data >> https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS_Why
Italy, Austria, Spain, France and even Germany are closing down their normal life... Shopping centers are closing, Hotels/Hostels are closing, holidays are cancelled, homeoffice is a new word that hits reality in many companies/authorities...
AS of today Italy has reported 2,158 deaths due to Covid-19, nearly as much as China as a whole with 3,226 death persons... (17.3.2020)...
Twitter message on flattening the curve, see
"Our #FlattenTheCurve graphic is now up on @Wikipedia with proper attribution & a CC-BY-SA licence. Please share far & wide and translate it into any language you can! Details in the thread below. #Covid_19 #COVID2019 #COVID19 #coronavirus Thanks to @XTOTL & @TheSpinoffTV"
As of today: 155 countries affected by Covid-19, a truely global pandemic spread.
By producing cheap products italy had a dilemma: how to produce cheap like production in China and be able to say "made in italy" (Armani, Gucci etc) espacially as a world heardland for fashion... The answer was to let chinese people product under cheap conditions in the country... Hmh... now find the error! (Maybe by comparing the russian strategy to immediately close the boarders and having now rarely cases!)
About 20,000 infected in Germany. More than 4,000 dead in Italy! More than 1,000 dead in Spain! 167 countries affected... Take care...
Because one of the first cases of COVID 19 occured in Italy, italians and politicians have undervalued the risk of diffusion of virus, so the life continued smoothly without any restriction. When they decided to adopt restrictive measures such as glibal quarantine it was too late.
Dear Ammar, you should ponderate your words to the actual situation. You see and you will see that it's just a matter of time, unfortunately. Italians are not stupid, just the first (after China) that experienced this unknown enemy. Spain, Germany and UK are exactly experiencing our situation (I repeat again unfortunately).
Because Germany and UK present the data in an "incorrect" way, the elderly people who die are classified according to previous diseases without swab analysis. Hide the dead as a "consequence" under the carpet. It is exclusively the way they have to protect, at least they believe, their economy. It is not, however, that in Italy we act better because on the one hand people are forced to stay at home considering this virus as very dangerous. On the other hand, with disconcerting claims it is said that there were many deaths but almost all the elderly with previous pathologies and the young ones had tumors or other diseases. Disconcerting and unacceptable.
The other possibility, not yet demonstrated, is that the virus has mutated in several forms with different pathogenicity.
#Ammar #Christian Jost Please check the following charts:
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fmy53y/united_kingdom_is_exactly_two_weeks_behind_italy/
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/
At the moment it seems that other European countries are one/two weeks behind Italy, but the trajectory seems very similar (#Christian all countries are producing in China, and elsewhere, to reduce production costs!!)
Dear Nguyen Hoang Tien , back to your question, why Italy and not Germany (yet) and UK (yet)?
I agree with Giovanni Vannacci that the epidemics propagates, and there are several factors playing, but time comes first to mind.
Italy was hit earlier than other European countries.
Compare and follow the countries (the only relevant data is sadly death/day, the rest is difficult to compare, with no-test to all-test strategies adopted in different places)
Data here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Click on countries to get to this daily death total in each country.
You will see that Spain is very close to Italy, France follows in time, then Germany and the UK.
Fit the curve by time shift...
The problem is that decision makers do not seems to do this: otherwise they might have acted earlier (UK and NL starting with a strategy "get 60% of people infected, that will build immunisation. Well immunised or dead? Now UK has changed fortunately, closing schools late: only last Friday, and restaurants and bars from last Saturday).
Some people have also compared the population demographics (how many people per age group?), and observed that some age groups, with previous pathologies, may have higher risks. The risk is for everyone, really, at this stage.
A heartbreaking issue is that facts such as the ones used in Wuhan: strong restrictions to limit the spread, were known ... 100 years ago. They got forgotten it seems. Please read the articles on the 1918 pandemics comparing the different US cities, and the effect of their different policies (scientifically relevant: large cities, and each mayor decided what to do, so methods can be compared):
ARTICLES
The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities
Martin C. J. Bootsma and Neil M. FergusonPNAS May 1, 2007
https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7588
and
Pandemic influenza: Studying the lessons of history
Stephen S. MorsePNAS May 1, 2007
https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7313
The Covid-19 death toll is devastating: tonight more than 6,000 in Italy, more than 2,000 in Spain, more than 150 in New York City already...
Claudio Pugliesi
why on earth do you declare a German coverup of data? Any remote proof?
The opposite is correct. It has been stressed often that the decesed are mostly elderly (e.g. the first two were 89 and 79 years old, five were living in a home for the elderly, etc.)...
Older people are more vulnerable to coronavirus (COVID-19) infection owing to their weaker immune system with advancing age. Since majority of Italian population are represented by older people, therefore, Italy is at the center of European coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
Italy’s high average age could be a factor in this. The elderly are more likely to have pre-existing conditions, and almost a quarter (22.6 percent) of Italy’s population is aged 65 or higher – the highest number in the EU and among the highest in the world.
Tonight France has already 1,331 deceased by Covid-19. But France has also said that these cases are only the deceased in hospitals... In the next days the deceased in the homes of the elderly and which died at home will be released... We must wait and see and be prapared to separate, stay at home and take care...
High migration could be a factor, according to the EU Migration and migrant
population statistics, Italy has higher migration of citizens who are not members of EU (69.9%) than others like Germany (42.7%), and so on
According to information I received from a friend in Italy, the most important reasons that led to the spread of the disease is the failure of most of the Italian people at the beginning of the crisis to the instructions that require sitting in homes and not walking to the streets. Celebrations, festivals and taking to the streets continued naturally as this deadly disease spread. Another reason, Italy remains the main point of arrival for migrants and refugees arriving in Europe across the Mediterranean.
Covid-19 has now spread to 175 countries of the World. Todays ranking of infected persons (Johns Hopkins University): 1. China, 81,000, 2. Italy, 80,000, 3. USA, 79,000 From tomorrow on it will be America First...
Can Covid-19 be compared to the Spanish flu? I say no, because in 1918 we had no Antibiotics, No-Anti-Viral-Drugs, Much less knowledge and less technology such as respirators/ventilators... But then, some try to compare it, like this report, see https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/2020-03/sars-cov-2-pandemic-history-spanish-flu-english/komplettansicht
Technical Report WCO on Covid-19: Urgent Safety alert – many fake goods around
Allegedly the US government is stealing face masks from partners in Asia, e.g. masks destined and bought by France, Germany, Canada... https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article206992269/Coronavirus-Pandemie-USA-fangen-von-Berlin-bestellte-Schutzmasken-aus-China-ab.html An example of reckless Trumpism...
Today more than 1,400 death in the USA from Covid-19 on a single day!
The discussion in the US and in the EU is clear: Virologists and Epidemiologists and authorities today are all giving advice to use self sewn face masks in order to slow down the spread of COVID-19 (not as self protection, but as measure of slowing its spread down)...
The Airbus airlift has done it again!
After the experiences of stolen masks for the EU by the US and unknown criminals (Germany got also 6.2 Mio. masks stolen which were coming from China via Kenya) which vanished in Kenya...
Airbus the european Aircraft Builder is flying to China and transporting the masks directly to the EU in their Airbus Airlift. The Airbus 350-1000 flew on its testlflight to China and brought 4 Mio. masks to Germany and France - they will be distributed to hospitals and homes of the elderly in Germany, France, Spain and the UK... At last the EU and even its former member UK are standing together...
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2020/03/airbus-secures-new-face-mask-supplies-to-support-europes-fight-against-covid19.html
https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/press-releases/en/2020/03/airbus-a400m-transports-masks-to-spain-in-support-of-covid19-crisis-efforts.html
COVID-19 has no clear set of symptoms and it is nicknamed the vicious virus because some do not have any and are happily spreading without knowing it. We know of 90 year old elders and 3 year old youngstrs tested positive on COVID-19 without symptoms. But in case you have some they may be consisting out of a dry cough, fever but also sneezing (to a lower amount) and also the loss of smell and taste... (data from Germany on the base of more than 44,000 cases) https://de.statista.com/infografik/21302/die-haeufigsten-symptome-von-covid-19/
The University Hospital of Erlangen (Bavaria/Germany) has now got the permit to use plasma from COVID-19 positive persons to produce antibodies for COVID-19 affected persons... https://www.fau.eu/2020/04/06/news/research/universitatsklinikum-erlangen-given-go-ahead-to-produce-covid-19-immune-plasma/
We are all wondering about the data and Covid-19 spread. Many love the Johns Hopkins Universtiy site (me too :); but it is all about the metrix behind, the level of testing, the overall population. This visualization by statista.com shows the different numbers of COVID-19 tests per mio. persons and it really looks behind the mask...
Yes, this question remained in my mind for a long time and I did not find a logical explanation for it ... What is the difference between Italy and the rest of the countries ???