The transmission of vector-borne diseases that are related to arboviruses is dependent on the extrinsic incubation period inside the vector insects (e.g. mosquitos). When estimating the risks and probablilty of transmission or disease outbreaks in face of climate change, the thermal conditions must be understood that contribute to the growth of the virus populations and the likelihood to enter the salivary glands. Only then other people can be infected. But obviously there is little interest until now in virology to measure the ecological conditions that influence virus behaviour, but perhaps (hopefully) i am wrong because this is not my scientific community.
Carl,
Here, as a response to your excellent question, I've copied my reponse to your comment on my discussion of Aedes albopictus and Zika virus. I hope this brings more attention to this topic.
This is a very important element to bring into the discussion, and one that is so often overlooked or given inadequate consideration. I frequently argue that we should pay more attention to vector populations than to pathogens. Your points lead into that recommendation as well. The public health communities tend to focus only on disease in humans, and as with Zika in the current situation, look only at that one disease. It is for this reason that I am trying to point out that the same vector populations may be involved in outbreaks, emergence, or endemicity of different pathogens in different regions and under different circumstances. Environmental temperature is certainly among the most important of such environmental factors. Below, I've linked to a blog I just wrote that addresses some of the diverse situations currently active among various Aedes populations around the globe.
Thanks for contributing!
Bruce
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chikungunya-zika-emergence-predicted-years-ago-theres-conn?trk=prof-post
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/zika-just-one-character-diabolical-cast-david-bruce-conn?trk=prof-post
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