Since Turkey is located in the Mediterranean macroclimate region in the sub-tropical zone, great rainfall variations can be seen between the years. at the north part, extreme rainfall and flood hazards and at the south and south-west part overheating are among main problems. However, the severity and of these variations is different from region to region. how can we define the most risky region, which its built heritage will be affected more in terms of future climate change?
Check its seismic data and zones.
Area prone to high seismic activity is least preferred die to more chances of earthquake.
One of the methods:
Using historical hydro-climatic data [i.e., maximum daily rainfalls (in rain gauges) and maximum flows (in hydrometry stations)], you can generate maps for extreme rainfalls and floods, for different return periods (e.g., 5, 10, 25 and 50 years). Then, analyze these maps together in any GIS software to find the more risky regions. By the way, studying hydro-climatic extreme events for the future decades have high levels of uncertainty.
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This is a multi-factor problem. Good question, but the answer is not so simple
You'll have to model each (sub-region) individually for future effects of rainfall and temperature ranges but also look at wind patterns and storm events.
You will then need to look at the heritage stock and assess how the building fabric responds to the new (modelled) climatic realities. You can do so by looking at the performance and response to climatic events over the past 30 years . Look at the extreme events and possibly use them as new normal.
The next issue will be the state of the heritage assets and the funding that currently goes into maintenance, both private funding for private buildings and public monies for community-owned assets. What is the trend here? That trend can be forward projected.
You will then also need to take into account the projected impact of climate change on the economic capacity of the private citizens and of the local governments. That will vary from region to region, but will have an impact on the future capacity and willingness to pay for repairs.
When you have all of this in hand, you ned to develop a set of evaluation criteria with relative weighting , which then provide you with a numeric value of future risk that incorporates environmnetal and socio-economic factors.