I mean, is it reasonable to assume the same evolution as for the GDP projection? Maybe looking at the historical trend and introducing that growth for the long-term? This issue is required since I am working with LEAP without optimisation. Suggestions?
This is quite a tricky question, I would probably more likely opt for using the historical trend instead of linking it to GDP. Another option is simply to hold it fixed at the current level, I mean in the end you do not really know what the future holds so it may be useful to assume that simplifies your analysis. Good luck. Regards, Patrik
I agree, that is a tricky question. EU electricity market guidelines suggest 10%-15% installed generation capacity as a nationally secure interconnection capacity level.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-15-4486_en.htm
Yes, this question looks tricky.
For example, there is too little electricity trade between EU countries, for example, between Spain and France, or Austria and Italy.
This has nothing to do with GDP. Even regional price difference can persist. In general there is lack of transmission capacity between countries. Nobody has an incentive to invest in that. There might be local regional producers that prefer congested market.
Thanks for your answers. In fact, I am talking about a regional model but "regional" means here something lower than a country, I mean, a county or a state. In those cases, you have electricity produced mainly in surrounding regions and the trade is internal. This approach is completely different than the idea of evolving electricity imports between two countries. For instance, a metropolitan area is mainly a sink (production is very low there) but if you want to model the evolution of that production, what assumption would you take for the electricity imported from the surrounding regions? To keep the same level as in the reference year or extrapolate the historical trend look very OK. I needed some feedback.
Dear Diego,
I think that in your case you better use the plan of infrastructure (major electricity producers, consumers, high voltage lines) for the set of regions that you want to study. I guess in your case this might be several autonomous communities in Spain. Better if export and import out of this set is not high, so that this can be viewed as quasi-closed system.
Then regional borders do not matter, and regional statistics simply reflects the flow of electricity from producing to consuming points. Only modern wind mills and PV have small scale, while electricity from thermal, nuclear or hydro plant is normally consumed by several regions. Due to scale effects you cannot build those generators close to every point of consumption (city or huge industrial plant).
Hi Diego,
You may refer to regional plans for the expansion of power transmission capacity. Sometimes they are accessible through TSO web pages. I also have another suggestion for you. You can perform sensitivity analysis on the cost of expansion of such transmission lines. I mean, depending on your study goals, you can compare the cost of installation of such transmission infrastructure versus distributed generation, for example.
Good luck!
Behnam
- Badges
- Science topic