Very Relevant Question

It depends upon the purpose of journey, in fact.

Needless to say, COVID-19 has make the tourists much more careful, we may say,suspicious too to some extent. Moreover, the pandemic has eaten away the resources of a common traveller, and his/her financial well being has been very adversely affected,everywhere in general, in developing economies in particular.

But now the tourist will prefer, in case some medical tourism sort of thing is there.Religious tourism will remain as ever. Agri-tourism may gain more ground as the social distancing is not an issue there.

Security concerns, and other hygienic factors will also affect their choice now. I think people from developed nations will prefer to visit other developed nations only due to various safety concerns.

Best wishes dear Sir

The most important factors will be hygienic and safety factors and probably all kind of tourism where social distancing is easier to assure than in traditional mass tourism sectors. Rural, active tourism and eco tourism will be more considered by tourists now.

Examples of aspects that can be included in decision-making include socioeconomic, environmental, personal and psychological considerations, the number of tourist attractions, accessible services, costs, human capital and different types of tourist destinations.

Since most of the tourists nowdays don't want to catch the covid19.

I think they will start considering to visit places that have the highest vaccination rates among its populations.

Carlos Basulto, I created a measurement instrument of tourism destination competitiveness which includes a list of determining factors (the most important) that have an influence on tourism arrivals. This measurement instrument is not specifically based on a global pandemic such as COVID-19 but it includes the general determinants which include some of the core factors on historic models such as Crouch and Ritchie, Dwyer and Kim etc. - all who investigated these factors. As such, this could possibly be a starting point for your study.

The determining factor "safety and security" and "health facilities" would stand out for you, depending on you greater focus.

This pandemic had a great financial impact on everyone and the tourism industry that is one of the most affected - this influence the ability of individuals to travel - being that tourism is seen as a luxury good and not a necessity.

Take a look at the concept of "smart tourism destinations" - we are on the brink of the fourth industrial revolution. How can this (advancement in technology) be implemented can be used to ensure safe, hygiene and secure traveling?

The best of luck

This question has multiple layers.

Regarding the selection of where to stay, it depends on their belief regarding this pandemic. Some do care about it and will value the precautions put in place such as deep cleaning, mask, gel, disinfection between users of facilities, testing available in the resort/hotel, result of staff testing, etc.

This could inform their choice regarding the selection of the hotel/resort they want to stay in. This could help businesses to differentiate from one another as well depending who is their customer target. People from different countries will have different expectations based on their cultures and local regulations.

At the same time, the rate of infection and death within a country will shape their decision of selection for a destination. This goes back to the Psychological factors affecting consumer buying decision. For example, in Mexico where you are from, the number of deaths is one of the highest in the world but then the rate of infection is not that high compare to other countries because this is a large country. To compare with the UK, Mexico has 1500 cases per million and the UK 58000 cases per million. Death rate is 1300 per million in Mexico and 1700 per million in the UK. Yet Mexico is perceived here in the UK as an unsafe destination, part of the “Red list” of countries to avoid.

Then some other people do not care much about the pandemic, some even believing it is fake. These people will not look at any of this data and simply book their holidays according to the usual factors of needs and wants. This being said they will be influenced by their respective government decisions such as travel ban, quarantine on return, etc. and the availabilities of flights. For example, here in the UK, when arriving from such a country, you will need to quarantine for 14 days staying at a specific hotel near the airport and pay £1750 for this stay to cover the cost of the bedroom, food, drink and testing. Failure to do so will cost you a £10000 fine and up to 10 years in jail.

Dear Carlos,

this is a very interesting and also important question. I think the whole tourism industry is looking towards this issue. Unfortunately, at least in my opinion, currently it is quite difficult to answer exactly, as the full ramifications of this extraordinary event are still not fully understood, also because it is still not concluded and new challenges are arising every day, such as mutations, forced closure of vital suppliers of the tourism value chains within destinations, extended quarantines upon arrival in the tourism destination as well as once returning home etc.

I can tell you about some trends we have seen in 2020 the region of South Tyrol in Italy (Italy - One of the countries, that has been most affected by the Pandemic in terms of Covid-related deaths in comparison to the population. Moreover, Italy is heavily depending upon the tourism sector) based upon arrivals and overnight stays. The main source markets of South Tyrol are Germany, the domestic market, and other surrounding countries (Austria, Switzerland etc.). Of course, I assume that the structure of source markets is very different from Riviera Maya, which probably has a higher share of international tourists.

After a good start in January and February 2020, Italy went into a complete lockdown during March and April, therefore the arrivals and overnight stays went close to 0. May and June saw a very slow increase, while July and especially August saw overnight stays which were close to the past "normal" years (August only -2,85% overnight stays im comparison to 2019). As the second wave approached during the fall, the numbers once again dropped. Here some insights and thoughts regarding the numbers:

February saw an increase most of all regarding German tourists, which can be attributable to the start of Covid-Cases around the world, and therefore international travels were partly substituted by travels to countries, which can be reached more easily by using individual means of transport (ex. car) which were and are still considered safer than public transport (during the summer months as well as currently also within tourism destinations, tourists oftentimes prefer avoiding public transport)

We saw that the increase during the summer months in the tourism numbers were mostly attributable to an increase of domestic tourism.

The length of stay decreased and overnight stays were concentrated more towards 4S- and 5-star hotels or tourist apartments. Here the perceived physical space at their disposal or the physical distance from other tourists seemed to play a role in the choosing of the accommodation type.

On a destination level, South Tyrol, being a mountain destination, seems to offer activities, which are more manageable from a crowding-perspective (ex. Hiking & biking), in comparison to sun & beach destinations, where tourist activities oftentimes are more static, which can result in crowds.

So, based on this information here some thoughts, which are partially related to points already made by other esteemed colleagues in their answers:

- Tourist behavior will be heavily influenced by their perception of safety and security, but also, by the accessibility of the visited destination upon arrival (quarantine restrictions, necessity to provide a negative covid-test, maybe certification of being vaccinated) as well as upon returning home (quarantine restrictions, necessity to provide a negative Covid-test).

- Tourism destinations, which are heavily depending upon international travel are more susceptible to the implications connected to this pandemic. In terms of destination management, a look towards the increase of the presence of tourists from the domestic source market, could help reducing the short-term-impact of international travel restrictions and the diminishment of international tourist numbers connected to it.

Reflections towards the destination to visit could encompass:

- Sun & Beach destinations oftentimes offer mostly static activities, which result in crowding. Tourists might increasingly look at the diversification of activities within destinations, with a special regard towards destinations, which offer activities allowing a greater dispersion of tourism flows (sightseeings, visiting the countryside, hikes etc.)

- Individual intra-destinational mobility options could also be an influencing factor regarding the tourists’ safety perception (presence of bike and car rentals in order to avoid the usage of public transport and therefore crowds)

- Accommodation of higher categories (4S and 5-star hotels) or private accommodation (tourist apartments, AirBNB) are perceived as being able to better offer more physical spaces.

Of course, these thoughts represent only some aspects, but I hope they can help you in your endeavour.