In one day here in Syria, i was watching automatic analysis of seismic records M>2, directly i warn the seismologists that higher earthquake magnitude might occur at any time. In the same day and after few hours a medium earthquake Ml=4 has taken place.
Thus, can we use foreshocks and aftershocks for earthquake early warning.
Time difference between body and surface waves.
Electromagnitic wave.
Carbon-deoxide concentration in the atomsphere.
Radon gas emssion
Animal behaviour
....................etc
What is the best idea for earthquake early warning? Let us discuss!
Hi Raed,
Interesting topic and thoughts.
I strongly believe that with better instrument coverage, computing power and efficient algorithms, early warning systems can be improved.
At present, the best early warning systems will save us a few seconds, however in my opinion, we should focus more on earthquake preparedness, seismic hazard assessment, ground motion/shake maps analyses, improving and implementing building codes, public awareness campaigns etc.
The fact is, the science of earthquake prediction is highly non-linear and in fact depends on many unknown parameters. Frankly, we do not know how many parameters we do not know. We can start by establishing a few factors, including those you've mentioned and some others, such as adequate?? knowledge of fault systems (crustal and regional), regional stress state, previous rupture processes/dynamics etc. Then statistically evaluate the probability of seismicity over time.
I think we should work on preparing for the worst case scenario while expanding our knowledge of earthquake processes and cautiously approaching the science of earthquake forecasting.
Hi Ayodeji,
All what you said is correct. Which parameter is more real to be used in early warning. Stress accumulation for example? Can we really expect the accurate location of stress accumulation? Can we establish a good idea about early warning?
Fore-shocks as a good predictor?
15 days to the occurreance of 16 September 2015 Chile earthquake (Mw=8.3), i noticed the occurreance of series of earthquakes with mdeium magnitude M>5 before the main shocks. It was really clear when i studied the seismicity perior the main shock.
I don't want to talk about early warning in general idea, i would like to specify each parameter alone.
В России возможность краткосрочного прогноза сильного землетрясения считается невозможной из-за недостатка надежных сведений об условиях его подготовки. Рассматриваются предложения о возможности снижения ущерба с помощью техногенных воздействий на область подготовки. Но это очень большая проблема для исполнения.
Dear Valery,
Да ты прав. Позвольте мне задать вопрос по-другому. Какой параметр более важен для прогнозирования землетрясений. Какая тема, вы можете подумать, что мы надеемся сосредоточить наши сейсмологические исследования.
We should not confuse prediction and early warning. Earthquake prediction is the analysis of physical precursors (before the occurrence of the event) announcing the event. While ¶Early warning systems is all kinds of measures that inform us as soon as possible (after occurrence of an event) about the severity of the event in order undertake measures aiming to reduce the impact of the event. In climatology for instance, upstream rainfall survey will allow us to know what we are expecting downstream in few minutes or hours. In Seismic risk reduction early warning systems are based on deployment of dense accelerometric and/or seismological networks that give us as soon as possible information about the affected area and the severity of recorded ground motion.
Dear Bouhadad,
P wave reach us few seconds before S wave which cause damage. Early warning system starts as soon we receive body waves and not after earthquake occurrence only. That is why i ask which parameter give us more time to build a better mitigation system.
Surely, i don't mix between prediction and earthquake early warning. Thank you for your kind answer.
Japanese listen to low-frequency magma waves and lava flows underneath http://www.eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp/people/ichihara/vp2007plan/GreenJVGR2006.pdf
Timely warnings of an earthquake provide seconds to nearly a minute to take protective action such as taking cover in safe locations, opening doors at the nearest floor, or automatically stopping critical processes to enhance public safety.
An important point is the wide distribution of leaflets among populations and school training in risk zones about what to do in case of earthquake. Here, the Spanish one. https://www.ign.es/web/resources/sismologia/qhacer/qhacer.html
Fateh Boutekouk
I also saw the images, it was incredible how those tourist people felt somehow mesmerized by the sudden sea re-flew, liberating an endless beach like in a Walt Disney movie. If I had saw that, I would have run away as high as I could, following promenade elephants that preferred to hurt themselves freeing from chains in the hotels to run into the mountains. But I can't understand local people didn't understood either what was happening. But one thing for sure: nowadays, full-day, most of human people are plainly unable to indicate South direction. How do you want them to be aware of whatever strange phenomenon happening? So, the only solution is education, so people know what to do in case of earthquake. The Spanish leaflet, very visual and understandable even for non-Spanish speakers https://www.ign.es/web/resources/sismologia/qhacer/qhacer.html
It's hard to do
But we need deep studies on the interaction of nature with animals and the strength of the senses in those animals.
The early warning before shaking starts can reduce damage and casualties during an earthquake.
Several attempts have been made to predict and forwarn the people,but they were proved to be wrong most of the time . Earthquake predictions are non reliable and till date none method is available to predict area and intensity sufficient time in advance to deliver information to public living in that area and prevent loss of life
I think we can use the aforementioned early warning detectors using seismic devices, animals like toads and frogs to detectors, electro-magnetic waves and so on. However, since there is no high effective early warning earthquake detectors, i presume we can enhance research and innovation/technology on improving existing instruments as well as minimizing carbon dioxide gas trapped in the earth crust as well as prudent ways to adapt or minimize earthquake impacts since it is inevitable
Very difficult to predict time and magnitude and place of earthquake early
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Mathematical Sciences
- Statistics
- Probability
- Probability Theory
- Reliability