Suppose a developing economy like India develops a strong preference for a single child norm and follows the same preference over a long run. What would be the economic consequences for India and the world?
China had one child policy for many years and it was a success; now population growth there became small. India has chances to have higher population than China if it will not adapt this policy. Population today is practically stable in Europe while is still growing fast in many countries. This poses a danger for global resources. Unlimited population growth can result in more poverty.
The question is how India is going to do that. Would it implement economic penalties for families with more than 1 child like China did? What will it do with children out of wedlock?
In the short run the one child policy per family seems a very efficient way for developing countries to limit their population growth. the Chinese example is very often quoted. However we should notice some severe critics addressed to this kind of policy.
1) If comported to the policy of birth planning praised in India, it is a very authoritarian measure .If China had been a true democracy (even imperfect one like India) it would never had been possible.
2) Its good results have been over evaluated since heavy political events ( the Great Jump and the Cultural revolution) have been respectively responsable for 50 and 20 millions of dead. This has produced on the demographic pyramid a strong effect that cannot be attributed to the decrease of the population growth rate.
3) According to Kuznetz's definition of development : to be really convincing the increase of economic revenue per head must be observed in the long run in a CONTEXT of growth of population. The fact that China has practiced during 50 years the one child per family policy makes less convincing its result in terms of growth of the net revenue per head.
4) By the mid of the 1980' when we have had encounters in Paris with the scholars of the Chinese institute of Demographics of BeiJing Georges Photios Tapinos whose assistant professor I was then and Hervé le Bras of the French National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) , warned them that the decrease of Chinese population will be very brutal in case of rigorous application of this measure. In the 2050 China could be reduced to it 1950 level ( id est 450 millions people) . It is exactly what is happening. The accuracy of "aging population" problem in absence of a true welfare State ( scarcity of manpower, imbalance between active and non active population ) is growing very fast.
5) As soon axe the liberalization starts in China with liberty of trade for small business the fame:yes that succeed the best wet family with several child that could feed auxiliary familiar workers instead of salary hired whereas the one child family were not very successful.
Thjis is why I conclude that in the short run the one child ( and hence very coercive measure anti redistributive) makes the population suffers anyway, does not foster manpower supply, has very anti redistribution effects. In the long run it brings in a lot of very serious macroeconomic problems ( such as the equilibrium of a welfare system.
Truly yours
All the responses are of course very intellectual. I thank the esteemed academicians for their valued opinions.
But I do think that Napoleon is really out of box.
I do hope to listen something about the future!
Dear Naponeon
I was not critical of your opinion. Rather I was appreciating your viewpoint.
Anyway, I must admit that I do not know much of the things the world knows.
Thanks.
the single-child policy has caused many unintended consequences in China. first and foremost, many men are unable to marry as they currently outnumber women by far, the consequence of gender preferences causing many female foetuses to be aborted decades ago. secondly, single children being responsible for two elderly parents, and even four grandparents, without siblings or cousins to assist financially, physically, logistically. in the same vein, the socialisation of the family in Europe (state takes care of you in old age) has resulted in a decreasing birth rate which ironically has led to a smaller tax pool from which to pay old age benefits and all other kinds of social programmes (fewer able bodied tax payers are supporting a disproportionately large old age population). Hence their programmes to incentivise having babies. From an Islamic perspective, it is interesting to note that the nabi Muhammad saw had four (surviving) children out of seven, which IMO is a good middle ground between single-child advocacy and the (IMO) economically inefficient numbers that are pursued in certain Muslim societies. There is a hadith that recommends a three year age gap between children (i.e. it's not forbidden, but not recommended to fall pregnant while breastfeeding).
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