The question is designed to triger a scientific disscussion about this important issue, correct some misconceptions concerning the whole spectrum of the area's seismicity. ( Instrumental, historical, paleo and archaeo seismicity.
Dear Najib,
In fact, i have noticed that the historical earthquakes were not accurately matching the epicenter and the magnitude. Our historical events are not well studied. From my experience with Syrian seismicity analysis i found that the earthquake locations were mapped incorrectly and their magnitudes were risen higher than it was. Yes nobody knows exactly what happened in the past, but i am sure that the seismicity in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine was not much strong than as it is reported by many scientists.
Based on my new published model for seismic hazard model, the expected Maximum Mmax will not be more than 7.6 in Syria for 2% probability of exceedance.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316329604_Seismic_hazard_assessment_of_Syria_using_seismicity_DEM_slope_active_faults_and_GIS
When we focus only on historical events we 100% get higher Mmax, but we should look on both instrumental and historical seismicity at same time.
I am the one who studied seismicity and prepared seimic hazard maps for syrian territory using porbabilistic approach, i found higher estimates of Mmax and earthquake hazard.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/286870802_Seismic_Hazard_Assessment_of_Syria
Based on this appraoch, I found that northern part of Dead Sea Fault System (syrian segment) can produce earthquake with magnitude 8 - 8.3. From my opinion, it is so high magnitude which may never happen, that is why i tried to create seismic hazard map in different way.
In the new seismic hazard model, i got surprising and promising results. Recently, i compared the occurred earthquakes of 2016 and 2017 with the pridected values. The comparison show very close matching observed and predicted results.
Obviously, we need to improve our ideas and thoughts. We can't trust the paleo and archeo seismicity alone.
Article Seismic hazard assessment of Syria using seismicity, DEM, sl...
Article Seismic Hazard Assessment of Syria
A new result of research giving ne answer to the question, M max = 7.8 +\- 0.3 after VL Stevens and JP Avouac BSSA, Sep 2017 Please see more in
http://sepspmic.sepmonline.org/bssa/article-abstract/doi/10.1785/0120170022/516637/determination-of-mmax-from-background-seismicity?redirectedFrom=PDF