What is the most appropriate model for determining aviation and economic potential within the region - how can it quantify, for example, the number of passengers at a regional airport at the start of a new tourist destination within the region?
The answer here will have to depend on the location of the new regional airport relative to the potential feeder airports -- where will the flights be coming from?
It is a hard problem, with some need for forecasting: what will the capacity of the destination be in terms of hotel rooms. Are these expected to be full from the beginning? (no?) If we had to bring 1000 passengers to this airport per week, that might be say 4 flights per week, and this is a very slow start. (Of course they also fly back home, so there are two events from the airport point of view).
Are there other modes that can connect to your destination?
What might be a more basic problem: what carriers do you expect to step in and provide this service. Is RyanAir standing by ready to lift people there?
Is the airport built and what is its capacity?
With much of this kind of thing you almost have to try first and then build up the scale. It is extremely unlikely that the new resort destination will be a big success on day 1.
Thank you for this boosting contribution - I understand there are lot of factors influencing this relationship. I will focus on identifying these factors which can create a model of, for example, one category of regional airport. My question was about any already widely-used model, if airliners or airport management are already using such models.
A common tool to model spatial interaction is a version of the gravity model which uses "attraction" and "propulsion" factors to model the likely volume between places. Part of the difficulty for you here is that the new resort destination is a new option (or think of it as a new choice). It is quite difficult to model demand for new options by extrapolating from the parameters from the existing options. The new option could be a huge success and beat all forecasts of its attraction, or, it could be a huge failure and not deliver the expected flows.
I'll attach a summary reading on the next e-mail.
Once again, thank you very much for materials. Finally I have something to read and think more about the issue ;-) I was thinking about using the modified gravity model but I was just wondering if there are other appropriate models to study more.
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