What do you think about the outbreak of coronavirus? Will the outbreak stop in China soon? Will there be an effective vaccine soon? Does the international community succeed in controlling it? What are the negative effects of this disease on the international community? Please share your opinion.
Outbreak of deadly coronavirus in China is very sad. All efforts are being made to to control the virus, and I do hope that situation will be soon under control.
In my opinion; serious danger to world health. But it's too early to talk in more detail.
Many thanks Aparna Sathya Murthy for your supportive contribution in this issue. I also hope that, unlike HIV, the corona virus will stop soon.
Many thanks Ilhami Unluoglu for your useful contribution in this issue.
I simply think that some scientists predicted this outbreak earlier before but since scientific publications are a little bit hidden in scientific journals and only scientist do read them, the lawmakers and politicians might have not paid attention to it but now the world has to take it serious and I think soon there will be a solution to it.
Outbreak of deadly coronavirus in China is very sad. All efforts are being made to to control the virus, and I do hope that situation will be soon under control.
Thanks Difo Voukang Harouna for your helpful responce in this thrad.
Many thanks Prof. Arvind Singh for your useful contribution in this thread. Like you, I hope that this global health problem will be soon under control.
virus-infected Early evidence suggested that, like other coronaviruses, the virus jumps between people who are in very close contact with each other, and probably spreads when an infected person sneezes or coughs.
Chinese officials have said that they have seen cases where people with the virus infected others before they start showing symptoms, but there isn’t good evidence to say if or how much that is happening. The WHO says that researchers think each sick person will go on to infect, on average, between 1.4 and 2.5 additional people, though that’s only a preliminary estimate.
Dear Prof. Barbara Sawicka, Many thanks for your supportive contribution in this thread. If the prediction of Professor Gabriel Leung is true, unfortunately the world will face a very serious problem. I hope this does not happen, but all the people of the world must prepare themselves to face such a critical situation. It seems that some countries have not yet taken this crisis seriously. All international health organizations and all governments and all peoples must make serious efforts in this regard.
Yes definately good to look on the bright side but it is always good to plan ahead. Will the healthvcare system have capailities to handle thousands of patients extra?
We still do not know if we develop immunity to COVID-19 and how long it will last for those that survive - so finfing treatments and a vaccine is essential.d
Thank you Axel Carl Carlsson and 建华 Zhang for your useful contribution in this issue. I appreciate it so much.
I think it is very contagious virus which makes difficult to control the spread of the virus ,but, I hope they will get control of it before it affects more people than this
The world must stand by their said because it is going to affect all of us
Dear Hayat Ibrahim Oumer and Jasim Hassen, thank you for your helpful responce in this issue. I hope this international thread will be control as soon as possible.
Dear scholars, many thanks for participiation in this issue. But the important question is;
What do people around the world have to do to control the coronavirus epidemic?
Wash handss, avoid crouded places , limit travel, close schools, limit meetings and gatherings. But we can wait until COVID-19 is widespread around us. Meanwhile it is hopeful that chlorochine has shown some effects against the covid-19.
@Kelvyn Jones: The reproductive rate R0 is estimated to be 2.5, but apparently there are some superspreaders.
Yes, it has been estimated to be around 2.5 but it has decreased in cChina after all fforts that have been made now. Yet, as Christian G Myers said, some individuals are superspreaders and can infect over 100 individuals which seems to have happened in a church in South Korea.e
Mant thanks Axel Carl Carlsson, Kelvyn Jones, and Arinze Prince for helpful contribution in this thread. Unfortunately, the coronavirus epidemic is developing rapidly. All people have a duty to take action to prevent the disease. Of course, the role of governments and international health organizations is much greater in this regard. It requires the efforts of all countries to prevent and control it. Hopefully, the right medicine and vaccine for this disease will be found soon.
short information (freely downloadble)
Article The Covid‐19 epidemic
One sczenario is that the virus establshes in societies and will cause seasonal outbreaks such as those caused yearly by influenza viruses, which are subjected to antigen drift, but also at times to antigen shift
Christian G Meyer
Interesting question.
My sense is that the incentive to contain it is higher than the cost. People respond to incentives as economists argue. There is no better incentive that this for scientists, bureaucrats, corporates, NGO's etc.,
Recent studies indicate that patients ≥60 years of age
are at higher risk than children who might be less likely
to become infected or, if so, may show milder symptoms or even asymptomatic infection. As of 13. February 2020, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 infections hasbeen approximately 2.2% (1370/60363; 13. February 2020, 06:53 PM CET); it was 9.6% (774/8096) in the SARS-CoV epidemic and 34.4% (858/2494) in the MERS-CoV outbreak since 2012.
Like other viruses, SARS-CoV-2 infects lung alveolar
epithelial cells using receptor-mediated endocytosis via
the angiotensin-converting enzyme II (ACE2) as an
entry receptor. Artificial intelligence predicts that
drugs associated with AP2-associated protein kinase 1
(AAK1) disrupting these proteins may inhibit viral entry
into the target cells. Baricitinib, used in the treatment
of rheumatoid arthritis, is an AAK1 and Janus
kinase inhibitor and suggested for controlling viral
replication. Moreover, one in vitro and a clinical
study indicate that remdesivir, an adenosine analogue
that acts as a viral protein inhibitor, has improved the
condition in one patient. Chloroquine, by
increasing the endosomal pH required for virus-cell
fusion, has the potential of blocking viral infection
and was shown to affect activation of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK), which is involved in
replication of HCoV-229E. A combination of the
antiretroviral drugs lopinavir and ritonavir significantly
improved the clinical condition of SARS-CoV patients
and might be an option in COVID-19 infections.
Further possibilities include leronlimab, a humanised
monoclonal antibody (CCR5 antagonist), and galidesivir, a nucleoside RNA polymerase inhibitor, both of which have shown survival benefits in several deadly
virus infections and are being considered as potential
treatment candidates. Repurposing these available
drugs for immediate use in treatment in SARS-CoV-2
infections could improve the currently available clinical
management. Clinical trials presently registered at ClinicalTrials.gov focus on the efficacy of remdesivir,
immunoglobulins, arbidol hydrochloride combined with
interferon atomisation, ASC09F+Oseltamivir, ritonavir
plus oseltamivir, lopinavir plus ritonavir, mesenchymal
stem cell treatment, darunavir plus cobicistat, hydroxychloroquine, methylprednisolone and washed microbiota.
In fact, this virus prefers a very cold atmosphere... I think the warm air reduces the rate of spread.
Christian G Meyer Do we understand the super spreaders, is it something about them , or is it the context (being in a confined network) or both?
Your contributions have been very informative; thanks.
I used to teach statistics/mathematics of epidemic spread, and I retain an 'amateur' interest.
@Kelvyn Jones: Sir, the Wikipedia entry is quite informative (sorry for not being more personal, but I couldn´t explain it better). The situation in South Korea is a good example! Please look at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super-spreader
Many thanks Christian G Meyer, Amina Sultan, Kheepe Moremi , Terry Purvis,
Aqeel Abbas Noaman and Kelvyn Jones for your informative and helpful contribution in this thread. I appreciate it so much. I especially thank Christian G Meyer for providing complete and update information. Your contributions have been very informative; thanks.
The number of new infected people has been declining recently. Hopefully the virus will be contained soon in all the affected countries
It will certainly not! Most likely it soon will be declared a pandemic.
I think the outbreak of Coronavirus will not end soon. It has spread to many countries even now.
I hope too that this outbreak will stop as soon as possible.
But it is affecting more countries.
In Mathematics/Complex Analysis, Corona Theorem is a famous result of Swedish mathematicician Lennart Carleson about the spectrum of the bounded holomorphic functions on the open unit disk of the complex plane, conjectured by Kakutani (1941) and proved by Carleson (1962, Annals of Mathematics) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corona_theorem). More information on this theoem and some generalizations can be found in my papers (Section 3 – The Corona Property, 1997) available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264961580_Ideals_in_some_Rings_of_Nevanlinna-Smirnov_Type and (Section 3 – Finitely generated ideals in N^p, 2015) available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329626793_SHORT_SURVEY_OF_THE_IDEAL_STRUCTURE_OF_PRIVALOV_SPACES_ON_THE_UNIT_DISK
Many thanks Anton Vrdoljak, Terry Purvis and Romeo Meštrović for valuable contribution in this thread. Unfortuanately the Covid-19 outbreak rapidly develope throughout the world.
The outbreak is affecting more countries. Currently, South Korea and Iran are the most affected countries outside China
The coronavirus outbreak continues to be a serious concern and the focus of considerable scientific investigation. To support the research and health communities, Elsevier has set up the Novel Coronavirus Information Center:
https://www.elsevier.com/connect/coronavirus-information-center?utm_campaign=RN_AGCM_Program_300004684&utm_medium=email&utm_dgroup=RE_SCP_EG_20200225_DL_100001156&utm_acid=-586726098&SIS_ID=-1&dgcid=RN_AGCM_Program_300004684&CMX_ID=&utm_in=DM654026&utm_source=AC_71&utm_term=RSSC_Newsletter_February_20200225_RNS3601_engaged
You are welcome Christian G Meyer , the link I found in the Scopus newsletter, which I received today...
Dear Anton Vrdoljak, many thanks for the link. This link has good information about COVID-19 for health care staff and patients.
There are many theories that surround these catastrophic events involving the Coronavirus however, a popular theory response the outbreak would the introduction of a new type of food substance that has caused the sickness to not only spread throughout the world and send us all into the havoc but also morph and shape into something else completely.
According to news reports, today (Mar. 18, 2020) is the first day that Wuhan city in China (epicenter of COVID-19) has no new COVID-19 cases reported. Good for them.
Many thanks Chinaza Godswill Awuchi, Yuan-Yeu Yau and Renesmee Hawthorne for your supportive responce in this thread.
Good May to all participants.
☒ COVID19 is the last large pandemic event from 1900, after Spanish Flu, 1957-Asian Flu, HIV.
The two pandemic flu lasted 18-24 mo.; HIV is again in action.
COVID19 (from SARS-CoV/2), is very similar to SARS (from SARS-CoV/1), with a duration of less than 24 mo.
From a comparative point of view the current pandemic event will end 18-24 months from its start (Nov..2019-Jan.2020): summer-autumn 2021.
But this duration can be extended or reduced by up to 50%
according to how the disease is managed locally or globally.
..................................................
☒ I'm studying the dramatic event of Lombardia (N. Italy), a real hyper cluster of this disease, compared to other regions
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/ResGa-FxFac-post_fig93_339781431
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/ResGa-FxFac-post_fig97_339781431
and I open a RG question in order to obtain collaboration with the underlying hypothesis for the incredible mortality (both % and ppm).
https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS-MERS_Why
About the vaccine, I think that in the current situation it id urgent also the selection of a set of molecules vs. SARS-CoV/2.
A possibility is the Artemisia natural compounds and chemical as inhibitors of SARS CoV?
In my previous review about this topic (Artemisia vs. Virus) there are some interesting elements in order to search new molecules against SARS-CoV/2
The main results about virus are as follows (see also slide & papers |n.2|):
_____________________________
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/ResGa-FxFac-post_fig102_339781431
|n.2|....The following 12 virus species have been recognized, both DNA-virus and RNAvirus, both phyto-virus and zoo-virus: BVDV bovine viral diarrhea virus; COPV, canine papilloma virus; DEN/2, dengue virus 1; FIV, feline immunodeficiency virus; HBV, human hepatitis B virus; HCMV, human cito-megalo virus; HFLUV, human influentia virus; HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; HSV/1, human herpes virus 1; HSV/2, human herpes virus 2; JUNV, junin virus; TMV, tobacco mosaic virus. ....
.. ... FROM Artemisia: absinthium, afra, annua, anomala, arborescens, capillaris, caruifolia, douglassiana, herbaalba,verlotorum, vulgaris.....
.. ... Natural compounds: aesculetina, arcapillina, artemisinina, artesunate, beta-arteannuina, beta-sitosterolo, deidro-artemisinina, deossi-artemisinina, isorhamnetina, N-N-N-3p-coumaroil-spermidina, stigmasterolo.
_____________________________
The following papers are narrative reviews about this general topic:
|n.1| - Artemisia vs. Nematoda:
Technical Report Alternative properties of Artemisia (Asteraceae) phyto-extra...
|n.2| - Artemisia va. Virus:
Technical Report Proprietà alternative dei fitoestratti di Artemisia (Asterac...
|n.3| - Artemisia global review:
Technical Report Proprietà dei fito-estratti di Artemisia (Asteraceae) altern...
.
China is hiding a lot from the world. China needs to allow independent investigation into the origin of the Coronavirus that causes Covid-19
Dear Salvatore Vicidomini, Many thanks for valuable contribution in this thread. you provided useful information about Covid-19. Thank you so much.
It's almost over there. Now COVID-19 has chosen Latin America and South Asia as hot spots.
Dear Muhammed Ashraful Alam, thank you for your reply in this thread, i agree with you.
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