What are your predictions for the end of the Iran-Provinces talks?

Predicting the precise outcome of the Iran-USA talks involves considerable uncertainty, given the intricate interplay of regional security concerns, domestic political pressures, the level of confrontation between Iran and the USA, and the underlying strategic imperatives on both sides. That said, here are some potential scenarios:

Incremental Progress Toward an Interim Agreement: One viable outcome is that negotiators reach a modest, time-limited accord focused on confidence- and transparency-building measures. Such an agreement might include provisions for enhanced monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities, phased easing of sanctions, or technical assurances that serve as a bridge toward more comprehensive negotiations later on. This pathway would depend on both sides making significant compromises on sensitive issues, particularly acceptable enrichment levels, and is fueled by the urgent need to avert a military escalation in the region.

Prolonged Negotiations Leading to a Partial Resolution: Given the deep-seated differences in core positions (for instance, Iran's insistence on upholding its right to enrich uranium versus the U.S. demand for stringent limits), another possibility is that the talks may stall without producing a definitive resolution. Instead, the process could extend over several additional rounds of negotiations, resulting in a series of incremental steps rather than a sweeping, final pact.

A Breakdown or Escalation of the Talks: There's also the risk that the talks could collapse if either side perceives the concessions required as too great or if external pressures (such as military posturing by the U.S. or regional actors) intensify. A breakdown could lead to a sharp escalation in tensions, upending the negotiation process and potentially destabilizing the already delicate regional balance. In such a scenario, the absence of a negotiated framework might push both parties toward unilateral actions, which none of them ultimately desires due to the risks of open conflict.

An Agreement with Temporary or Limited Impact: The talks could end with an agreement that is largely symbolic or serves as a stop-gap measure; a deal that alleviates immediate pressures (such as postponing the threat of military action) without fully resolving the core disputes. While useful in the short term, such an outcome might be inherently unstable and subject to renegotiation as conditions change or when either side faces new internal or external challenges.

A Comprehensive Long-term Agreement: The possibility of adopting a comprehensive long-term agreement under which Iran agrees not to produce a nuclear bomb and puts all facilities comprising its nuclear program under IAEA inspections should not be ruled out, to ensure the peaceful nature of its nuclear program. The agreement should guarantee an enrichment program consistent with the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program and the surrender of all nuclear material enriched above the agreed level to the IAEA.

In essence, while a comprehensive, lasting resolution remains a challenging goal, the immediate priority for both Iran and the USA will likely be the avoidance of military escalation. This dynamic may drive them toward at least a provisional or incremental agreement. However, the inherent uncertainties in domestic politics and international strategic calculations mean all these outcomes remain possible.

Abou El Fadl Mohammed Bahlouli

تصوري اتفاق شامل طويل الأمد: لا يُستبعد اعتماد اتفاق شامل طويل الأمد، توافق بموجبه إيران على عدم إنتاج قنبلة نووية، وتُخضع جميع منشآت برنامجها النووي لتفتيش الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية، وذلك لضمان الطابع السلمي لبرنامجها النووي. ينبغي أن يضمن الاتفاق برنامج تخصيب متوافقًا مع الطابع السلمي للبرنامج النووي الإيراني، وتسليم جميع المواد النووية المخصبة بما يتجاوز المستوى المتفق عليه إلى الوكالة الدولية للطاقة الذرية.

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