Many of the current methods for assessing risks depends on probabilities and events as randomly distributed occurences. This does not fit with intentional acts that can be persistent, reoccuring, focused etc. I am looking for any new work on providing new methods for assessing events that are not randomly distributed and for aggregating such risks. A closely related topic would be any new work on aggregating very low probability or rare events. Does anyone have a pointer or suggestions for who to look at and where to look?
You're right - very good question! However, it is very cumbersome to find something beyond the assumption of randomly distributed occurencies. Even if it is obvious that one has to respect dependencies and causalities...and if you try to assess risks in regimes regulated by certain norms they'll force you to make strange assumptions on occurences in that they often fix the probability to 1 (i.e. 100%). So hopefully someone will enter this discussion and provide some hints/pointers/suggestions...!
you should read Nancy Leveson's book "Engineering a Safer World" and publications (http://sunnyday.mit.edu/) about risks, hazards and probabilities... You might chnage your mind and focus on other questions.
I have followed Nancy's fine work for many years...were there specific concepts of hers you think I should reexamine? Especially I am very open to having these problems stated differently. Thanks for your thoughts
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