The Spanish flu has a detrimental impact on the economy. Swine flu, although considered an epidemic instead of a pandemic, has an adverse effect on USA economy. Basically pandemics and epidemics resulted in deaths and unemployment which led to a reduction in consumer spending and thus an imminent decline in economics performance.

Currently (April 2020) this type of pandemic is the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic that causes Covid-19 disease. The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic on Covid-19 on the global economy is very large. The high probability of potential recession of the global economy and in many countries in 2020 is currently estimated. The increase in the amplitude of fluctuations in the valuation of securities and other assets on capital markets, the increase in the volatility of trends in financial markets, the increase in risk, unpredictability, uncertainty about the situation on financial markets in the future results from many risk factors associated with the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus, with many questions to which there is no precise answer yet. In a situation where the process of pandemic development, the impact of the virus on the human body is not fully understood, no effective therapeutic treatments have been developed, no vaccine has been developed, so there are many risk factors that also determine the increase of uncertainty, unpredictability and risk on economic processes and on situation on financial markets. We know very little of the past. Pandemics that have occurred over the past several hundred years have been significantly different from the current SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic in terms of diagnosed, described correlations of epidemic development in a particular community and economic processes. Previous pandemics occurred in other economic realities, in a situation of significantly different financial systems, had a regional rather than global character, occurred in the realities of a much smaller scale of people's movement, a much less developed sector of tourist services, less or no information globalization, or economic globalization etc. Due to this, apart from medical issues, knowledge of virology in many other fields of knowledge in the last several dozen and several hundred years has changed a lot. In addition to medical and virological knowledge, the use of other historical data to analyze the correlation between the current SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic and epidemics caused in the past by other types of viruses can therefore be very limited. In some issues of the impact of difficult to forecast new risk factors on the economic situation and the economic situation on financial markets, one can look for analogies with previous economic and financial crises, because the development of recession processes, stages of crisis development, applied anti-crisis economic policy programs could be in many respects analogous.

Greetings.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

All aspects of society and economy will be/are impacted.

SARS-CoV-2 impact on the global economy is currently only estimated, the pandemic being ongoing and without a vaccine or guaranteed medical treatment. There are a variety of risk factors that lead to uncertainty, unpredictability and major effects on international economic processes and population health. In my opinion, from the demographic point of view, the impact of COVID-19 will be stronger in the long term on the rich countries compared to the poor countries. There are many pandemics in human history with major effects, such as plague, but I hope the effects will be less than this.

Many thanks Prof. Dariusz Prokopowicz .Prof. Silvius Stanciu and Dr. Sule Akkoyunlu , you explained well how the COV2 affect on the economy in whole sectors all over the world, in addition, we couldn't forecast the financial market and economy will be?

However, could you know what are diseases / pandemics in the past reflected on Global economy and Financial markets in the past? like Spanish influenza impacted on the global economy? there were another pandemics in the past had significant impact on the global economy and/or financial markets ?

It can be clearly seen that Corona virus has impacted on most of the countries economics and several companies financial situations. However, these impact is very dangerous for countries who depend on just one sources of income.

The severity of the effect of the corona virus disease on the healthcare systems, revenues, supply chains, commerces, economic & social wellbeing of the peoples of the world is enormous, & this is still unravelling.

Nations like Nigeria where I come from are hardly hit as her economic mainstay is proceeds from oil & gas. Thus, the corona virus inspired decline in prices has led to a decline in estimated government receipts. This has further led to a downward review of the oil benchmark to accommodate the present fiscal realities.

In addition there are also concerns that the nation may not be able to engage in capital projects as a result of the decline in projected revenues. This is informed by the likelihood that government may prioritise it energy on the recurrent expenditure components of the budget. I foresee a situation where the central, state & local governments will most likely not be able to pay salaries of workers as at when due if crude oil prices remains around 20-30 dollars.

Nigeria is a highly indebted and a good percentage her budget is channeled towards debt servicing. And as her revenue projections decline so does the credit risk exposure of her creditors. Thus translating into higher interest rates for future borrowings. Fitch & other credit rating has already downgraded Nigeria. This implies that future borrowings which are expedient to acquire necessary medical equipment and PPEs would come at a higher cost.

This pandemic is aggressive and Nigeria has not expressed anything close to it. The Ebola virus disease outbreak of 2014 comes nothing close to the severe economic and social disruptions experienced and caused by the corona virus disease today.

Spanish Flue is the biggest Pandemic in terms of Economic and Financial Markets' losses in the recent centuries.

In this reply there is a visual comparative data about deaths, infects, and DEBT/GDP >>> https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS-MERS_Why#view=5e9852227efcd833ec45f125

In this reply there is an attempt of comparative past epidemic event (Flu Spanish included) and financial curve behaviours >>> https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS-MERS_Why#view=5e8dcf36007e2c7b9b2825d2

In this reply there is a possible evaluation of GDP loss and DEBT/GDP increase for Italy in this phase >>>

https://www.researchgate.net/post/The_novel_Coronavirus_in_N_Italy_Lombardia_COVID19_2019nCoV_SARSCoV2_shows_a_fatality_rate_compatible_with_SARS-MERS_Why#view=5e82443c7fd2ce39c56f1126

Thank you for attention in this dramatic moment for my country. Have a nice week and. --sv--

The best pandemics - on which studies of their economic impact have been conducted - are MERS and SARS. Both were contained relatively quickly thanks to the difficulty with which the viruses spread. There are many papers published on this topic. In terms of scale, the current crisis could be viewed as similar to the Spanish Flu in 1918-20 and believe it or not, there are economic reviews of its impact published, dominantly in relation to the experience in specific US cities. I would also suggest you look at work by anthropologists and historians who have documented the impact of pandemics, albeit not solely in economic terms...

Dear Ahmed,

Though most stock markets (and oil prices) have nosedived recently, the transitory effects will have prolonged impacts on economies and companies’ earnings because of coronavirus pandemic.

This is also evidenced by the fact that the Fed decreased very recently interest rates to zero levels and the markets keep nosediving. This is an indication that markets are already far sighting and factoring the long-term impacts of current world events because of coronavirus pandemic. I am afraid, but current world events will have major impacts on countries and companies’ earnings, which will definitely led to many bankruptcies worldwide.

Prof. Dr. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi

Full Professor of Finance & Banking and Financial Engineering

EGADE Business School, Tecnologico de Monterrey,

Santa Fe Campus, Mexico City, Mexico.

Each pandemic changes the overall lifestyle, as the current pandemic, changes the future habits of people's hygiene.

The sources and specifics of the current economic crisis that has been triggered in many countries by the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 disease are significantly different from previous major global or regional economic and financial crises. However, there are many analogies in the use of specific anti-crisis instruments, interventionist socio-economic policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy. Therefore, the effects of these anti-crisis policies, which aim to slow down and reduce the scale of the economic crisis, and sometimes also the financial, debt, etc., may be significantly different. However, if this really happens, as the applied anti-crisis socio-economic and other policies will be assessed, it will turn out sooner in a few months, i.e. after a period of a significant decline in the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus epidemic and the appearance of permanent macroeconomic effects of both the economic crisis and its restrictions by interventionist anti-crisis measures taken by governments of individual countries.

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dear Dumani Markjackson Thanks for your good explanition, you may right the Ebola come nothing close to the effect on economic like today. However, What's your perspective of previous pandemics (SARS, Ebola, Spanish flu 1918-1920, .... etc) of the economy and the financial market?

Kindly, Md Edrich Molla could you provide me by scientific references which prove the impact of Spanish flu 1918-1920 on the Economic & financial markets? where I searched but in vain!!!!

Thanks Salvatore Vicidomini for your kind consideration and your good papers you attached !!!

Good idea Kieran Hanrahan I'll do. Thanks for reply

Thanks Prof. Mazin A. M. Al Janabi and appreciated but what do your perspective of past pandemics (SARS, Ebola, Spanish flu 1918-1920, .... etc) and its impacts on economy and financial markets ?!

Dariusz Prokopowicz It is a great analysis of the effect of Corona virus on the current situation

However, is it possible to give your perspective of previous epidemics (SARS, Ebola, Spanish flu 1918-1920, .... etc) of the economy and the financial market?

Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:

Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-of-pandemics

Scientists use a basic measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the reproduction number — also known as R0 or “R naught.” This number tells us how many susceptible people, on average, each sick person will in turn infect.

The Spanish flu

Very difficult to separate the core (epidemic) and the resulting collateral damage Ahmed S. Wafi Sule Akkoyunlu

In other words, the actual impact of the pandemic and our reactions to it.

For me, it is the ravaging spread of one of the oldest infections in human history - the bubonic plague. :)

In the past, the largest pandemics were usually not the main factor causing economic and / or financial crises. In the last 100 years, the sources of the largest financial and economic crises have usually been specific economic problems, errors in making investment decisions, unreliable compliance with business and banking procedures, failure to comply with the principles of financial and credit risk management, etc. In addition, in the past, several dozen or more years ago epidemics were limited to cities, regions and parts of the continents. In contrast, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic (causing Covid-19 disease) quickly spread globally due to widespread globalization of communication, transport, tourism, etc. capital markets. The current economic crisis is therefore completely different from the previous sources. Paradoxically, there are more similarities with previous crises in the instruments of state interventionism, including anti-crisis socio-economic policy programs, including the fiscal policy of the Ministry of Finance / Ministry of the Treasury and the monetary policy of the central bank. I researched this issue on the example of analyzing the sources of the global financial crisis of 2008 and the instruments used in the development of monetary and budgetary policy.

Have a nice day, Regards,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dariusz Prokopowicz ,

Allow me to disagree as to the historical impact of pandemics.

Not only did they wipe out a great portion of the working stratum in some countries (and thus, deprived the ruling elite of taxes and work hands), but by killing off the ruling elite as well, they also led to crises in government, the toppling of entire politico-economic systems, demands for rights from a budding bourgeoisie, religious reformations, as well as military-economic expansions abroad via the aggresive establishment of trade relations and colonization.

:)

Dear Ahmed S. Wafi

You can use the the Global uncertainty index to asses the impact of a pandemic on the global economy or financial markets. Not that the data tracks all the previous pandemics and assigns an index indicating its severity:

https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/

Ahmed S. Wafi I thought the current pandemic are.

These are the 10 of the Worst Pandemics in History

So, I think at each period, these all pandemics were affected by the global economic and financial market.

Thank you.

https://www.mphonline.org/worst-pandemics-in-history/

https://globescience.net/coronavirus-infection/

Ahmed S. Wafi

Its a great question. We must take care of history and learn lessons from it to create a beautiful tomorrow.

After the starting of the pandemic I was trying to collect data about pandemics. I came to know that in history we come to know about breaking out of many diseases. But none of these could be called pandemic because none of these diseases affected the whole world at the same point of time. It was the Spanish Flu that impacted the whole world at the same point of time. Therefore, it can be called the first pandemic in the history of the world.

Other than the COVID-19 pandemic this Spanish Flu pandemic was the one that affected global economic and financial markets.

Ebola and SARS 2003 cannot be called pandemics as such because they did not impact the whole world at the same point of time. For example, India is a country that constitutes about one sixth of the total population of the world but this country was never impacted by these two diseases.

So to sum up, it can be said that Spanish Flu is the only pandemic that impacted the global economic and financial markets.

Thank you.

Best regards,

Anamitra Roy.