Good evening Dr Hasan,

This is a challenging question and the answer is likley to depend on the local, national and international circumstances preceeding and following the earthquake, as well as on the charcteristics of the earthquke, level of destructiion, casualties, etc. The more severe the eartqhuake it is likley to pose more severe challenges and potentially opportunities.

Probably a good start would be to explore case studies from past earthqaukes and attempt to extrapolate the lessons learned, especially in relation to examples that are probably most close in their circumstances to the one you want to explore.

One would assume that there would be initial direct and indirect lossess associated with the earthquake but equally one could expect that the earthquake could also boost in short to medium term the economy due to the reconstruction efforts, demand for materials, labour, etc. that in turn could boost the ecomonic output too. However, all these investments would have to be paid somehow and would lead to increased borrowing inside and outside the country. I belive that there have been instances where the country currancy had to be devaluated within few years of the earhquake but it is difficult to say if the earthquke was the primary cause or the event that tipped over the balance.

The affected area might become a magnet for employment due to the available opportunities. This may become unsustainable in a long term because at some point the reconstruction will wind down. This in turn may cause structural problems in the economy wiill oversupply of certain types of labour and business that would no longer be locally required. If the wider economy is unable to asborb this oversupply, it may result in unemployment, wage reductions and fearced competition for the few remaining jobs, with all of the associated pros and cons. A potential benefit could be associated with the upscaling of the local labour force if traininng programms are introduces in the post earthquake period that may have long term positive effects as these newely skilled cohort should be able to attract higher wages than before, etc.

The above are only suggestions about the possible effects of the earthquake that will have their effects on the economy.

With Best Wishes

Dear Dr. Vladimir Ladinski

Thank you for valuable adding.