To anyone who may concern:
I am collecting data about COVID-19 daily incidence in particular countries in Sub-Saaran Africa (5 countries from African Horn & Great Lakes region and 5 countries from Gulf of Guinea region). Besides that I am trying to find some reliable sources about number of tests providing there. Have you got any idea, whether official statistics in countries from those region exist and where could be found? Thank you!
Best regards,
Jiri Preis, University of West Bohemia, Pilsen, Czechia
Official statistics are meaningless...
The current estimates of numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths are very inaccurate. The sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic tests for COVID-19 are not yet known in vivo. There are reports of very high sensitivity and specificity in vitro. However a number of confounding factors (e.g. the stage of illness and the way the swab was taken) mean that the false negative rate of these tests may be high in clinical practice.
Wenling Wang; Yanli Xu; Ruqin Gao; et al Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in Different Types of Clinical Specimens. Jama 2020 (in press).
The numbers of cases reported will also depend on strategies used for screening. Many countries are only screening symptomatic patients presenting to healthcare facilities. Others are attempting to screen a significant proportion of the population.
I believe the total number of cases of COVID-19 is significantly higher than that being reported. There are many confounding factors (both political and diagnostic) that make the initial number of deaths reported as being due to COVID-19 extremely difficult to interpret.
