Due to the pandemic from about a month and for a few more months again it is necessary to stay at home to minimize the risk of any contagion and the further expansion of the COVID 19. Fear and many other reasons could be an irresistible stimulus. Many children could be born at the end of 2020 and at the beginning of 2021 to mark, after the disaster, the rebirth strongly and indelibly . Opinions and comments.
Deaths and births are closely related. Events that cause a large increase in deaths tend to cause a large decrease in births nine months later. This relationship holds up for influenza outbreaks in 1889, 1918, France since 1950, and the U.S. since 2003. It holds up across three major hurricanes in the U.S. and two large hurricane outbreaks. It fits the case of Ebola mortality in West Africa, an earthquake in Japan, three French heatwaves, the last large famine in Finland in 1868, as well as the entire distribution of winter mortality and summer fertility in Iceland in the 19th century. Across numerous contexts, lots of death leads to fewer conceptions, and thus fewer births nine months later.
Refrence: https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births
Dear Mahmoud Omid, thanks for the comprehensive and accurate answer. I fully agree with you and with the works you mention that I basically knew. However, the situation is now very different as we are all forced to stay at home to minimize the spread of the virus. How will this new "strong constraint" affect the number of future births in the short term (9 months)?
Leonardo I agree with you, I think we will have many birth at the end of 2020 and at the beginning of 2021. In my opinion, the length of time which people stay at home has a positive correlation to number of births.
I beg to disagree with Mahmoud Omid that birth rate will be low up to 9 months after the end of the present COVID-19 based on the article cited. The mortality in 1918 Influenza pandemic was mainly in young population, thereby affecting the birth rate. Similarly, hurricanes and earthquakes affected all males, females, and children equally causing a drop in the child-bearing population.
I would agree with Leonardo Cannizzaro that due to young couples forced to stay at homes as a result of forced lock-downs, it will be natural to have a baby boom 9 months after the end of this pandemic, akin to that occurred after Second World War (Baby Boomers). This is also more likely by the fact that infants, children, and younger patients suffering from COVID-19 are more likely to survive compared to older non-child producing population that has highest mortality. Pregnant females as well the newborns (despite having a chance of infection from mother by vertical transmissions) have a good prognosis.
Due to the fact that the sense of responsibility in young couples has decreased, and also due to the decrease in job opportunities and ambiguous future, I think young couples are reluctant to have children and the birth rate will drop.
Muhammad Yousuf But I am not clear about these: " The mortality in 1918 Influenza pandemic was mainly in young population, thereby affecting the birth rate. " and " akin to that occurred after Second World War (Baby Boomers). " Didn't the majority of WWII dead young population (mostly male) too?
Leonardo Cannizzaro Negative reports start to show up during 'lockdown', such as divorces surge (1), domestic violence has increased, (3) Child abuse increase, when the abusers are forced to stay with the family, and the being abused persons have no place to report...
(1) Coronavirus is making couples sick of each other: Lawyers see divorces surge
https://nypost.com/2020/04/03/sick-of-you-lawyers-see-coronavirus-divorce-uptick/
(2) Coronavirus Update: New York State Sees Uptick In Domestic Violence Reports
https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/03/coronavirus-domestic-violence-new-york/
@ Yuan-Yeu Yau and @ Mahmoud Omid
These are the facts about 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu - Wikipedia):
The pandemic mostly killed young adults. In 1918–1919, 99% of pandemic influenza deaths in the U.S. occurred in people under 65, and nearly half of deaths were in young adults 20 to 40 years old.
Disease: Influenza
Deaths: 17–50 million (estimate)
Virus strain: H1N1
Date: January 1918 – December 1920
Why young people had higher mortality is explained in this article
Article Pathogenic Responses among Young Adults during the 1918 Infl...
It is hard to tell given other factors such as fear, anxiety AND STRESS LEVELS LIKELY TO RISE. For couples who will handle stress well,they are likely to be close to each other , bond more and hence opportunity for romance to blossom therefore possibility for new births. Technologies use in this season might break or make. I study development communication
Dear Lenoardo and others,
In Slovakia, I realized a research focused on sexual behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research
https://www.researchgate.net/project/Specifies-of-sexual-behavior-of-Slovak-woman-and-men-during-COVID-19-Prehlad-Statistiky-Zdravotne-informacie-Priznaky-Prevencia-Spravy-Zvladanie-Zdielanie-COVID-19-pandemic
The research sample consisted of 2,225 respondents. Of these, 1,012 were men and 1,213 were women. The average age of the respondents was 23, 45 years. The first analyzes of the results show that the desire for sexual activity increased compared to the period before the COVID-19 pandemic. The evaluation of the quality of sexual life compared to the period before the COVID-19 pandemic also shows an increasing tendency. Slovak women and men have more frequent sexual intercourse, it is possible to assume that the frequency of pregnancies will also increase, but this needs further research.
Best regards
Stefan