Colleagues,
How much scientific evidence supports the possibility of a COVID-19 pandemic resurgence based on poor measures taken by local governments? What are the main factors that could possibly cause a second wave?
Cheers
The lack of education of the population, against the background of the need to restart the economy,
The multiple variables involved in the social model and the big data studies tell that there is no way to avoid the second wave, unless a specific vaccine will be ready on time to stop that. Statistics tell the truth, always.
Till date(23/05/2020) the total death numbers is 338249 . To combat the pandemic, many countries have put in place strict containment and mitigation strategies to minimize the risk of transmission, decrease the spread of the virus and ‘buy time’ for health care systems to cope with the huge numbers of patients and ultimately save as many lives as possible. A social and economic life that coexist with the virus. To avoid new peaks in the number of cases, overstretching health system capacities, infection rates need to remain suppressed until a vaccine or effective treatment are found. If all confinement strategies are lifted, however, the infection rate is expected to rebound in a matter of weeks. A strategy is needed about when and how to relax confinement, and when and how to re-tighten some of them when necessary. This is needed to minimize the risk of further peaks of the outbreak or, at least, to win as much time as possible between the successive peaks. Second, we need to understand the virus better, including: the incubation period and infectiousness of the disease at different stages; the extent of asymptomatic spread; immunity and its duration in those who contracted the virus; and the impact of changes in temperature on the disease spread.
Other factors are rumors without base they can spread fears. Confusion has been sparked by letters and theoretical papers published in scientific journals about whether some types of heart medication can raise the chance of developing a serious form of COVID-19.
As the new coronavirus sets scientists scrambling for a solution, rumors and false claims are fueling confusion and deepening economic misery.
Another remedy that “kills the coronavirus,” according to misleading social media posts, is drinking silver particles in liquid, known as colloidal silver.
A man died in the U.S. from taking a form of chloroquine — hailed by U.S. President Donald Trump as a potential “gift from God” remedy” — after he took a form of the drug his wife had used to treat her pet fish.
Banner Health, a non-profit health care provider based in Phoenix, said on its website that “a man has died and his wife is under critical care after the couple, both in their 60s, ingested chloroquine phosphate, an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks.” However, models provide a simplified view of reality. One of the complexities they often (but not always) omit is human behaviour and how it might change in response to government and media communication, social and economic realities, and direct experience of COVID-19.
This is a typical example of “corsi e ricorsi storici”(G. Vico): the history of Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 had to teach us many things, but we were unable to prevent the second wave in Europe.