Hi,
I am currently working on a population viability analysis regarding the Galapagos Penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus). I am using the equation:
N(t+1) = λ*N(t)
However this is an incredibly simple model regarding population and I was wondering if anyone can suggest a better model?
Also does anyone know about the relative accuracy of population viability analyses in general or is the reliability more species specific? If so are they used to form conservation action plans or more for academic purposes.
Thank you for the help in advance.
If you take into consideration natural stochasticity and anthropogenic one (Allee effect), my personal viewpoint is that PVA are inaccurate and mostly for academic purposes. Of course I refer to wild populations.
It depends on what you want to do with the results from your PVA and what data you have (projection matrices?). There has been a vigorous debate on the accuracy of PVA two decades ago, right when the tools started becoming popular among ecologists. Recently there has been a renewed appetite about the question. Here are a few paper in this discussion:
Possingham et al 1993 http://www.publish.csiro.au/?paper=PC930039
Brook et al 2000 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v404/n6776/abs/404385a0.html
McCarthy et al 2001: http://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:10045/hp_cb_01.pdf
Coulson et al 2001 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534701021371
Brooks et al 2002 http://chasm.msu.montana.edu/biol506/brook/brook_2002_critques.pdf
Ellner et al 2002 http://www.esg.montana.edu/biol506/brook/ellner_2002_precision.pdf
Reed et al 2002 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2002.99419.x/pdf
Ball et al 2003 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1025821506931
and recently
Crone et al 2013 http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/cobi.12049/pdf
PVA are not based on surveys and censuses? If so, the variables are "infinite": habitat, cluster species vs. solitary, accuracy of census, sex, age, inbreeding, etc.
PVAs are used to compare managment scenaries then these givevrelative resulta about tendency on population modeled. The PVAs requiere population data that you can evaluate their efects on results using sensitibility anallisys. Un this way, you can use siimple vs complex equation in order to choise any one if there are high impact in results. But remember that these are using to compare managment scenaries bases on the most real data, that is dificult to get for most species
Please refer to Timothy James Bell article in J. Wildlife management 77(6):1104-1113. ·2013.
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