More and more cold blasts in North Hemisphere occur despite the above normal warm conditions. During December Polar vortex over the Arctic Pole seemed to be very strong despite the loss of sea ice cover in contrast to previous years. As far as I know, reflective sea ice has been increasingly melting in the summer, there is more dark, open ocean that can absorb the sun’s rays. As sea ice begins to reform as fall progresses, the water releases that heat into the atmosphere. That added heat could be pushing atmospheric patterns in a way that destabilizes the polar vortex and makes the jet stream behave more wildly.
But what are the speculations of climate models for such destabilization?
Attached file relates to global climate model and how shows how various places are getting affected due to green house gases.. Not sure if it exactly relates though
Article ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT DUE TO THE DOUBLING OF GREEN HOUSE GASE...
Hi Stavros,
this is a topic of much current debate. Reductions of sea ice are certainly responsible for increased heat fluxes into the lower atmosphere - especially in autumn. Temperature changes can then peak a little later and have the potential to alter atmospheric circulation. A number of recent papers suggest that sea ice decline destabilizes the polar vortex and creates a pattern with higher than normal pressure over the Arctic. Mechanisms proposed often involve the stratosphere and lead to a weaker jet stream and more cold air outbreaks. However, this last part is hotly debated and climate models do not always agree on the impacts so the jury is out....
You might like to take a look at this paper for potential changes due to sea ice:
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140902/ncomms5646/full/ncomms5646.html
and for a general view of polar vortex changes under climate change:
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140902/ncomms5646/full/ncomms5646.html
best regards
Adam
Sorry that last link was pasted incorrectly. Here is the correct link:
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-011-1080-7#/page-1
thanks
Adam
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