I am trying to understand some analysis from climate data of my country Tanzania
in the historical climate baseline (1971-2000) the number of cold days ranged from -0.09 to -0.18 (days/year).
In the present climate (2011-2040) under RCP 4.5 emission scenario, the number of cold days ranged from -0.06 to -0.11 (days/year), while under RCP 8.5 emission scenario, the number of cold days ranges from -0.09 to -0.14 (days/year)
My question is why the gradient of cold days decline faster during historical climate than in the present climate?. Does this mean we expect in future climate to have more cold days when compared to the historical climate
You need to check how cold days are being defined. it could be that they are a fixed percentage of the mean and that the mean is different in each scenario. So although the number of cold days is increasing their temperature is not because the distribution is flattening.
Hi Philbert, you said that in 1971-2000 the cold days ranged from -0.09 to -0.18 (days/year), and in 2011-2040 under RCP 4.5 emission scenario the number of cold days ranged from -0.06 to -0.11 (days/year)...The value is not trend of cold days. Rather, it is 30-year average, and could be called annual mean number of cold days. The small difference between future and present is understandable considering the near-future period, the intrinsic uncertainty of the models, and the small area or fewer stations analyzed.
Hi Guoyu Ren yes the data used are from ensemble of 5 regional climate models. I was wondering why in future the trends seems to become small than in the historical climate and started to speculate may be we expect to have more cold days. The climate system will start to Cool in future. So is this justifiable? what exactly can I convince the decision makers about those results?.
I would like to advise the decision makers by comparing the historical an future projection
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