North-East Monsoon and its associated CYCLONES In Peninsular INDIA: Why is it too complex to forecast?
Is it because of the weak Coriolis force along the tropical zone in comparison with that along the polar regions?
Is it because the complex non-linear relation between wind and pressure along the tropical region than that observed along the poles?
What additional parameters play a critical role in forecasting the wind (weather) pattern in the vicinity of the tropical zone - with reference to that of the polar regions?
I hope the link below helps:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/What_factors_affect_the_number_of_tropical_storms_on_the_earth
Wind, temperature and pressure as will as La Niña and El Niño effect make the more complex for monsoon forecast.
If the upper-air circulation patterns as well as the steering winds are studied carefully, it is not so difficult to forecast cyclones in the peninsular India. It may become complex if a 'Col' develops at 300/200 hPa level over the cyclone area. Of course the Coriolis force near the low latitude may have some effect on the intensity and direction of the movement of cyclone. @
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