Modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020 – 2053):
What are the possible consequences of a reduction in solar magnetic field (mitigation of total solar irradiance) resulting from modern GSM?
Whether the reduction in terrestrial temperature of around just 1 degree Celcius – during this modern GSM - deserve special attention in terms of vegetation, agriculture and food supplies?
Do we have reliable data either from Maunder minimum (1645-1710) or from Wolf minimum (1270-1350)?
Will Modern GSM counterpoise the signs of global warming for the next three decades?
Dear Dr. Suresh Kumar Govindarajan ,
the interval 2020-2053 you specified is too wide. According to well-grounded forecasts, in the 25th solar cycle, which is predicted on 2025, the maximum number of sunspots in the 11-year cycle is expected to be in the range of 150-185 units, i.e. very far from the minimum values. For comparison, we can indicate that in the past 24th cycle there was Wmax(24) = 116.4, and the maximum over the last 400 years was Wmax(19) = 286.9. Therefore, it is possible that a Grand Modern Minimum of solar activity will be in 2030-2050. Respectfully yours, Vsevolod Lozitsky.
And maybe less political interference? Will science shut up the politician who think that cows are cause this temperature shift?
Dear colleagues,
regarding the Grand Minimum of solar activity in the coming decades, then perhaps its prospects will become clear in the next 4-5 years. Namely, for this it may be sufficient to observe the maximum solar activity in the 25th cycle, which is predicted for 2025. According to Prof. V. Zharkova, the 25th cycle will be about 10% weaker than the last 24th cycle, see the link:
https://solargsm.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/zharkova_reply2usoskin_jastp17.pdf
But if the Grand Minumum of solar activity will be weaker or will have a narrower time scale, then the forthcoming 25th cycle will be 30-40% more powerful than the 24th cycle. So, we have to wait 4-5 years. I sincerely wish you, dear colleagues, that you not only live these 4-5 years, but also that these years be happy for you! Sincerely, V. Lozitsky.
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