Public health authorities claim that no one is safe from COVID-19 until every one is safe. This has translated into a goal to vaccinate everyone who can be vaccinated. Logistically, however, it will take 7 years to vaccinate 2 million adults per day (365 days a year, no weekends or public holidays) across the world in order to vaccinate earth's 5.8 billion population over the age of 15 with a single dose. (Well resourced countries are struggling to achieve 100k jabs per day). So what's the point?
We are not even discussing the hundreds of thousands of vaccinators needed at work everyday for 365 days a year for 7 years to achieve 2 million jabs per day.
The reason to vaccinate as many people as possible is to slow the spread of the disease. It is very simple, if you do not take the vaccine your chance of survival is very low.
Mitch Fadem I get that. But, with due respect, my question is not about the rationale for vaccination.
Mitch Fadem The question is about the logistics of vaccination, and the impact that logistics have on the rationale that you mention.
I understand better your question. I have worked with colleagues at a well known virology institute before retiring. Discussion with them confirm that COVID-19 will be with us for a very long time and yes, the magnitude of the numbers of people make it virtually impossible to vaccinate everyone. Death rates will increase exponentially not just from the pandemic but from the fact that other diseases and treatable medical conditions will go untreated based on the lack of medical personnel and hospital space. The numbers of deaths in the US are already close to double than anticipated. Based on this pandemic continuing over for years anyone who is not vaccinated will more than likely die. I cannot imagine the effect on the world population but in 5 years 1/3 to 1/2 the population in the US will perish. That is why we must at least try to vaccinate as many people as possible.
Mitch Fadem "in 5 years 1/3 to 1/2 the population in the US will perish." No way. No way. And no way.
Controlling the disease through herd immunity takes years and I am not sure if the COVID-19 vaccines will ever achieve that goal, because it is not clear if the vaccines protect against infection or asymptomatic disease. Unfortunately, the clinical trials were not designed to evaluate vaccines against infection. However the vaccines are still very useful for individual protection, particularly for vulnerable population against severe disease and death.
It is possible to vaccinate every one in this earth. There has to be a strong political wish, public support and awareness that vaccination is necessary. @Natasha it is very much possible but we need to sustain the efforts and do it religiously
I totally agree with Dr Kumar. I wasn't certain at first but in the US our new President has a plan to vaccinate 100 million people in 100 days. By this time next year anyone in the US wishing to be vaccinated will be.
Mitch Fadem The question wasn't about the US, or 1 country. Covid-19 is global, so I am talking about global averages, not US averages. Even if the whole of the US is vaccinated at operation warp speed by next month, that will hardly affect the global average. So the speed of the G8 countries do not affect the global average.
Sanjay Kumar I did not ask if it was possible to vaccinate every one in this earth. I said it would take several years (in my estimation approximately 7 years), and if that's the case then what's the point? Further, I was not asking about what you call "a strong political wish, public support and awareness". My question is about logistics, and logistics only. I am not asking about the necessity of vaccination at all.
Sanjay Kumar You say "it is very much possible", and that is exactly the target of my question. If, as you say, it is "very much possible", then my question is: HOW? I just want to understand how you think it will be done in terms of execution and the logistics of delivery. That's all. I'm not asking a question about the morality, efficacy, ethics or desirability of vaccination.
Hermann Gruenwald If it is not financially feasible then it also cannot be technically possible. Unless by technically you meant "theoretically"?
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