I wish to forecast the economic values of a polluted water bodies and thus I desire to get an appropriate economics model/ econometrics tools to do so.
One of the simplest forms of modeling are the VAR models (autoregressive vectors). Also these forms of modeling have offered the most accurate and robust forecasts. There is a lot of literature on the use of this type of models for environmental issues, as for example in this case http://oa.upm.es/47841/1/TFG_ALVARO_GALLEGO_GARCIA.pdf. However I think the real key issue is the selection of variables and reliability of statistics.