In 1993, 1996, 2002, 2007 and 2012 the UK saw an unexpected and unexplained increase in deaths, emergency medical admissions, emergency department attendances and GP referrals. These events appear to initiate earlier in Scotland and involve infectious-like spread for the increase in morbidity and mortality. It has been suggested that increases in the level active cytomegalovirus infection may be implicated. Further papers investigating this phenomena are available at www.hcaf.biz. Any thoughts, comments or suggestions would be useful.
http://www.hcaf.biz/2013/Deaths_suddenly_increase_2012.pdf
I will have to ask a basic question. Has there been any, small or wide scale, screening of CMV-specific IgM or IgG in at least elderly admitted patients? Although primary HCMV infection is usually inapparent, and most infections occur in childhood, symptoms are quite evident for CMV: Persistent fever, muscle pain, lymphadenopathy elevated levels of abnormal lymphocytes and liver enzymes.
I agree that CMV can lead to such massive infection rates, subclinical status, and deserves being called a silent killer. This is helped by ease and diverse methods of transmission of CMV: 1- intimate contact with body fluids, although saliva may be the most common source. 2- the virus is present in semen and vaginal secretions; 3- organ transplants 4- blood transfusions. and CMV can also cross the placenta and infect a fetus in utero.
I, thus, wonder why the report states that "there is high granularity between local authorities suggesting infectious spread of a relatively difficult to transmit agent.
Many thanks Mahmoud for your answer. At the moment these outbreaks remain largely unrecognised as an infectious outbreak per se and have been treated as evidence for 'system failure' in the NHS, hence, there has been no systematic testing for CMV antibodies or shifts in the frequency of particular CMV strains. I have had to infer that the causative agent is CMV by looking at the spectrum of diagnoses prior to death (see link)
http://www.hcaf.biz/2012/Diagnoses_deaths.pdf
I have subsequently published additional studies demonstrating small-area spread of this unknown agent.
Easiest option is to go to
http://www.hcaf.biz/emergencyadmissions.html
and download some of the more recent publications.
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