To answer your question, you need to distinguish between short term events (weather) and long term events (climate).

You could calculate 30-year moving averages of seasonal precipitation to see if there are changes.  By definition, climate is 30-year increments of weather.

By calculating those averages, you'll know if climate change affects the seasonal rainfall in your area of interest.  Climate change has so much variability that it's difficult to make generalizations about smaller scaled regions.  This is because climate change affects the mean and the variance of particular variables.  Because this happens, the extremes can be exaggerated.

Yes seasonal rainfall will vary. 

You can check this http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/indnc2.pdf

This document is a national communication by the Indian government to the UN. 

dear vinesh, i have some opinion

i think seasonal rainfall could be affected by climate change, when climate change happend it affecting the evap rates and other rainfall properties so possibly it could change seasonal rainfall intensity in your study area.

regards,

You can check out this paper:

Roxy M., 2013: Sensitivity of precipitation to sea surface temperature over the tropical summer monsoon region—and its quantification. Climate Dynamics, 43, 5-6, 1159-1169.

Basically, over regions of strong convergence (eg: north-central Indian Ocean during summer), seasonal rainfall tend to increase with increasing temperatures. However, this increasing rainfall over the Indian Ocean need not be carried on to the South Asian subcontinent (due to changes in land-sea contrast, monsoon circulation etc.)

thanks to all for valuable information!

Dear Vinesh

In the area where I have been working for the last 3 decades rainfall patterns have changed significantly. Three decades ago the number of rainfall events, amount of rainfall in an event, the effective rainfall and the months during which these precipitations occurred were much higher relative to previous 4-5 years. I do not know whether these changes can be ascribed to climate change alone because there are other changes in the area like increase in human population/habitation, conversion of agricultural lands for human habitation, destruction of vegetation for development (?), establishment of polluting industries etc. The average temperatures have increased particularly in summer months, weather has become sultry during rainy season, winter temperatures are fluctuating and winters are becoming warmer etc.

Good luck.

It depends--what rainfall are you looking at in what countries, and what parts of what countries?  For example, the Arabian peninsula is experiencing floods and torrential rainfall each year to several times a year, when those rainfall events prior to 1985 occurred on average only every 200 years--you can see those events listed at http://www.ecoseeds.com/cool.html.

In the area where I did analyses of rainfall patterns for the period 1950-2014, many of rainfall indices changed significantly, after 1990. It results also that rainfall amounts of warm/cold periods of the year changed, it changed also number of rainy days or wet days, duration of wet and dry periods, etc.

Dear Tanja,  I see from your publications list at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tanja_Porja/publications that you are also studying extreme rainfall events?    

Perhaps that could be part of the answer to Vinesh's question about "intensity" if we measure the changes in the frequency of extreme rainfall event, especially in arid parts of the world where those event were very rare for hundreds of years, and then became  frequent in the late 20th century?

In your studies in Albania, did you see a change in frequency in the extreme rainfall events?

Dear Kenneth,  Here is what I wrote at http://www.ecoseeds.com/cool.html based on the  paper from 1989: 

"TORRENTIAL RAIN and FLOOD events, prior to 1985, were extremely rare on Arabian peninsula. Michael O. Walter (1989) wrote a paper "A unique flood event in an arid zone." in Hydrological Processes, 3: 15-24 about the April 23, 1985 flood event in SW of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia that killed 32. Walter estimated at the time, that flood events in Arabia were only expected to happened every 200 years or so.

Since 1985, flash flood rain events with property damages and deaths have become annual events, or sometimes can be monthly summer events in some years.."

And then I list the torrential rainfall events for the Arabian peninsula from 1986 to 2013.  Then http://www.ecoseeds.com/cool2.html picks up in 2013 and lists the events to May 2014.  

Perhaps the extreme events in the Walter paper and what has happened since the 1980s, are notable by the extremes that cause the loss of life?  Also if you look at the reports since the 1980s, they sometimes are qualified by the local people, when like the 2013 November 15-26 floods in Kuwait, that this was the "heaviest rainfall in 61 years", for example?

Dear Craig, my answer is YES.

These days I am working on the intense / extreme / extraordinary rainfall episodes over Tirana (capital city of Albania) and the results are amazing. Analyses of 1950-2014 shows that after 1990, extreme rainfall events frequency are higher and also the 24h rainfall amounts are larger.