Popper did not think so. However, I think that social scientific predictions can be plausible if long established prior and contemporary trends (income inequality as a predictor of variable longevity rates, for example) are evident. For all that, the statisticians remind one not to push future prediction too far.
In my opinion, with the proper updated information and the precise tools you can predict with some grade of certainty the future trends in social science. However, this prediction could have a great percentage of imprecision in certain areas of the social science.
In my opinion, with the proper updated information and the precise tools you can predict with some grade of certainty the future trends in social science. However, this prediction could have a great percentage of imprecision in certain areas of the social science.
Dear Paul:
There are in RG a number of interesting discussions and resources on the topic. See, for example:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/To_what_extent_can_we_predict_political_and_economic_processes_and_events
Dear Jorgen and Jose
Many thanks for helpful replies, including a highly relevant source. Much appreciated Jose! I am inclined to agree with you Jorgen that a greater level of imprecision is inevitable in social science (contra physical science). I do not believe that this existing challenge bodes badly for the future of social scientific investigation. The issue is surely about refining predictability in an area where a huge range of factors - many of which are hard-to-detect, confounding variables - makes social scientific mathematics exceptionally challenging. Paul
You are welcome. Dear Paul, I share your view on the subject.
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