Here is an interesting and relevant paper that correlates climate change with fire severity in relation to ponderosa pine stands: https://earth.boisestate.edu/jenpierce/files/2012/04/Pierce-et-al-nature-2004.pdf
Maybe if climate change is fast, species ranges might contract, but they may merely shift if enough time is available. For ponderosa pine, the question is complected by the management history and by present management.