Officially 86.986 cases and 2.979 fatalities. Consider a high number of unrecognized cases. The situation will worsen very soon.

Till now the number of infected individuals is more than 60,000 cases, if epidemic has ended, the formula for calculation is the number of death divided by number of cases.

But if the disease is still present as it is the case with the current corona virus outbreak the previous formula is misleading , at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients

The correct formula, therefore, can be used to alculate the case fatality rate (CFR) which represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}

(where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

As for the elderly, children and pregnant women, these are considered as the vulnerable groups and are considered as a target group to focus on.

Coronavirus may not be as deadly as Ebola although with a world population of billions he will kill millions of people. However what everybody seems to overlook is the extremely long time required by Covid-19 seriously affected people (16-20% more ?) to recover normal health. Covid-19 will change the world and devastate Africa-India-South America and of course Arabian Gulf countries who are based on Indian-Bangladesh-Philippine workers.  

Previously it was not that fatal and was supposed to be relatively milder forms of viral infection. But this time it's novel strain with quite high morbidly and mortality. As per China data in news more than thousand deaths in almost forty thousand affected which is very significantly high.

Thanks Raya Al-Naimi for the information you provided.

Mustafa

Maurizio Dioli, interesting thoughts.

Thanks,

Mustafa

Thanks Vyas Kumar Rathaur

Good information, but why you think it takes this much of space in the news, probablym much more than Ebola took?

Mustafa

What was the death toll in case of ebola?

R0 represents the average number of susceptible individuals an infected person will transmit the disease to.

R0 = Attack rate x Contacts

Attack rate (the percent chance that a contact will get the disease).

If the R0 is < 1, a disease outbreak should wane over time, and if its >1, cases would continue to increase.

Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.5. The Spanish influenza of 1918-1919 had an R0 of 2. Chickenpox, a fairly infectious condition, has an R0 of around 5.

To predict the severity of a new disease, we need to look at both the basic reproduction number and the case fatality rate

COVID-19

COVID-19 has R0 of 2.5 and a reported case fatality rate of around 2%.

Case fatality rate is defined as the number of fatal cases divided by the number of total cases.

In COVID-19, fatal cases have probably been assessed accurately; people who are that sick generally end up in hospitals. However, the number of total cases are probably being missed by huge margins, perhaps even an order of magnitude, as asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic people may not be getting tested. If this is the case, the case fatality rate would decrease as screening improves.

How to change the R0 number

One can do that by addressing the two elements inside it: the number of contacts an infected person has and the attack rate of the disease.

Limiting potential contacts can be achieved by means of isolation and quarantine.

Attack rate can reduce with the use of masks, handwashing, and vaccination, as and when a vaccine becomes available.

This depends on identifying cases, and it is still unclear as to whether transmission can occur in the asymptomatic period. The latent period is 5 days.

Thanks. That's encouraging.

Yes

The largest study on COVID-19 cases to date provides new details on the severity of the illness, including its death rate and who is most susceptible.

The study researchers, analyzed information from 44,672 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China that were reported between Dec. 31, 2019 and Feb. 11, 2020. Among these cases, there were 1,023 deaths, resulting in an overall death rate of 2.3%. But the death rate in other parts of china is 0.4% while that of Hubei Province its 2.9%.findins suggest that COVID-19 epidemic has spread very

quickly taking only 30 days to expand from Hubei to the rest of Mainland China.

The study also showed that older adults have been hit hardest by COVID-19. Among those ages 80 and older, the death rate was 14.8%, compared with 8.0% for those ages 70 to 79; 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for those ages 50 to 59; 0.4% for those ages 40 to 49, and 0.2% for those ages 10 to 39. No deaths have been reported among children from birth to age 9.

Three indicators are important in judging the burden of disease: Incidence rate, case-fatality ratio and long lasting disability. Regarding COVID-`19, Until now it seems highly contagious and therefore the incidence rate is high . The case-fatality in China is low (around 2%) compared to almost all previous similar emerging epidemics. The long lasting burden is not clear, hopefully very trivial. But if the disease is not contained it represent a serious threat to the world population and economies. . It is hoped that containment is likely. It is important to mention here that not all countries may have adequate preparedness to respond to the crisis.

Nice analysis Malangori Parande , but how this compare to the normal death rate of other infectious diseases (i.e. Ebola and SARS)?

Thanks Omran S Habib

It's really a dangerous disease because of the rising mortality rate.

@aqeel thank you for the response, but Ebola and SARS both got higher fatal reate.

good

what about V sequencing comparing with others have been diagnosed ?

I think the answer to your Q would be in genetic info of coro-v 2019

Please take a look at this link

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d

COVID-`19 that was first diagnosed in China is highly contagious. The report indicated that Corona virus carries high morbidity and low mortality.The case fatality rate in China was estimated around 2 percent.

The case fatality rate in some parts of China is around 3% and in some other parts it is around 2.3%. but what is alarming is it's very high contagious nature and because of that inspite of all quarantine measures it has spread to many other countries in no time.

This article is worth a read.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate

thank you so much Mahendra Pal , Vyas Kumar Rathaur and Monika Pathania for your input.

Mustafa

As per today's news 81000 affected with more than 2800 mortality which comes around 3.5% mortality rate in China itself. And it has spread to 44 countries.

Certainly a real problem that needs international cooperation to control the disease

FEBRUARY 2020

Moderna Therapeutics, a biotech company based in Cambridge, Mass., has shipped the first batches of its COVID-19 vaccine. The vaccine was created just 42 days after the genetic sequence of the COVID_19 virus, called SARS-CoV-2, was released by Chinese researchers in mid-January. The first vials were sent to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in Bethesda, MD, which will ready the vaccine for human testing as early as April.

Vyas Kumar Rathaur You are right, and the rate of mortality in Iran is the highest now. It is about 10% (if the official stats of Iran is trusted).

Vyas Kumar Rathaur good news regarding the vaccine release.

As there are certainly quite some unrecognized asymptomatic cases the case fatality rate will be lower than 2%, maybe around 1%.

Officially 86.986 cases and 2.979 fatalities. Consider a high number of unrecognized cases. The situation will worsen very soon.

Yes, it is dangerous. Not only for medical/epidemiological reasons, but also for economic, social and many other reasons.

Thank you Christian G Meyer for your valuable input.

Actually, the main question here is "Does Coronavirus take more than it deserves in the media, giving that SARS and Ebola have more fatality rate?"

What do you think?

Novel Coronavirus - This is live count keeps changing as and when it gets updated

https://infographics.channelnewsasia.com/wuhan/gmap.html

This gives you an idea where the virus is spreading on daily basis.

Article Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coron...

Further information is collected here: [Bibliography] Coronaviruses • SARS • MERS • COVID-19 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339662263

Thanks Dhifaf Zeki and Rafid A. Abdullah

Rudolf Pfister thanks for sharing the useful link.

Saurabh Bhargava Thank you so much for the explanation. I really like your comparison, and agree with your opinion of "if COVID-19 is spread in Africa, it will be more dangerous than Ebola" just because of the lower quality health care system available there.

Thanks,

Mustafa

Yes, due to the potentially high infectivity of Covid-19 Coronavirus, this virus is particularly dangerous to humans. The current research results show that Covid-19 Coronavirus will cause various changes in many aspects of human life.

It is now known that Covid-19 Coronavirus is highly contagious and the level of mortality in the infected group is several times higher than the level of mortality that occurred with the action of various influenza strains in previous winter seasons, in previous years. In addition, Covid-19 Coronavirus is highly resistant to temperature changes. Covid-19 coronavirus becomes less active only at 26-27 degrees C.

In addition, the possibility of quickly creating new types of viruses as a result of mutation processes is a very worrying issue. It is highly likely that Covid-19 Coronavirus appeared earlier before it began to infect humans. Earlier he could infect certain animal species and only after subsequent mutations did he move to human infection. The current Covid-19 Coronavirus also quickly mutates like other viruses. At the time you read this commentary, at least some new strains of Covid-19 Coronavirus will be created. It is possible that as a result of these ongoing mutations, a new type of Covid-19 Coronavirus will be created that will cause other diseases and symptoms in humans and / or certain animal species.

The impact of the development of the Covid-19 Coronavirus pandemic on the global economy in 2020 will be very large and highly negative. Economic growth will decline strongly, probably the strongest since the end of World War II. The global economic crisis may be much larger than that which occurred in the autumn of 2008, when the global financial crisis arose, which was caused by errors in credit risk management committed in central banking and monetary policy of central banking.

In my country, the government even recommends people who feel unwell, who detect symptoms of a cold, e.g. cough, runny nose, fever or other symptoms of a cold or flu, to stay at home, not to go out and go to the hospital alone, but to they called the hospital or specially appointed medical services to first consult a doctor by phone or via the Internet. The idea is not to leave the house without a serious and justified reason, not to infect other people, not to infect medical services, including doctors, nurses and other health care personnel, because if there are not enough healthy doctors, nurses and other personnel Health care is a pandemic problem Coronavirus Covid-19 will be much, many times larger. Therefore, I also join these recommendations and recommend to the community, to the citizens of countries where many people have already been infected with this virus: If you can, stay at home.

Best wishes.

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Thanks Dariusz Prokopowicz

Haji Saediman , thanks for your reply.

Honestly, according to today's data from Italy, Iran and some other European countries, I think, you are right. The COVID-19 is really a serious issue in the world today.

When I posted the discussion back on Feb. 13th, the virus was barely detected outside China, so it was not clear if the new version of Corona virus is really dangerous.

Now, we have plenty of data that proves the seriousness of this issue.

Haji Saediman , thanks for your reply.

Honestly, according to today's data from Italy, Iran and some other European countries, I think, you are right. The COVID-19 is really a serious issue in the world today.

When I posted the discussion back on Feb. 13th, the virus was barely detected outside China, so it was not clear if the new version of Corona virus is really dangerous.

Now, we have plenty of data that proves the seriousness of this issue.

Yes it is highly dangerous because it is very much contagious. But if your are in self quarantine or always maintain a social distancing, avoid crowds then it might not be so much dangerous for you.

Stay safe..!!!

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is very dangerous emerging disease as it has killed many persons in USA, China, Italy, Iran, Spain, France, Germany and others. The mortality due to this life threatening disease is increasing day by day.

As of today 04/04/2020: total infected=1,118,844; active cases=830,322;

number of cases which had outcome=288,522; out of them recovered=229,186 (79%); death=59,236 (21%). A contagious disease that has a 21% death rate is really a dangerous one. You may follow the link below to get a daily update. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Pitambar Khanra thanks

Thanks Harasit Kumar Paul for the useful link

Yes Mahendra Pal

http://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov

Yes

If no lockdown, disease spreads (because it is transmitted by air from infected persons) and generally kills those with some medical problem, so very dangerous. If lockdown like in China it can be controlled and less dangerous.

Thanks Hayman Kakakhan Awla for the link.

How is life going in EPU, and Erbil in general?

Hope all is good.

Mustafa,

Thanks Elena Tarkhanova

Michael Issigonis , yes the quarantine is an essential step in controlling the disease.

Thank you,

I just saw the account of someone who got discharged from hospital with the virus.

He knew he was sick, but the ambulance system (in London. UK) was not interested.

So, after the high temperature, had no appetite for 3 days, started bleeding for further 2 days (not eating anything) when peeing, then spitting blood for 5 days - still the ambulance was not interested.

Then his oxygen level went down to 90, very hard to breath. Then the ambulance made him wait on the line to "get priority" said they are coming, but it took 4 hours to come and he had to call 3 extra times to remind them.

In the hospital, he sat on a chair for a further 2 days to wait for a bed. The hospital was missing many many things including water to take the pills with (!). He saw two others dying in his ward. He went "through the system" in 3 days and was dismissed.

He could have died many times during this ordeal!

Michael Issigonis OMG, scary situation that I hope nobody is going through.

Mehreen Gulsher

Mustafa,

Research [Bibliography] Coronaviruses • SARS • MERS • COVID-19

Mehreen Gulsher

There is no doubt about how dangerous and deadly this virus is. However, there are important take away in the way things are happening if one considers its mode of transmission. Because its a relatively new strain with as yet to be developed vaccine, it makes it scary and its rate of transmission is even alarming. Other illnesses like malaria and HIV continue to kill everyday at very high rates with the difference that these already known diseases are either not spread worldwide (im thinking of malaria that is endemic to certain regions only) or they are well developed lifestyle methods and vaccines or anti-retrovirals to contain them and allow people lead normal lifes. We all can only hope that a viable treatment or vaccine is concluded on soonest.

thanks Godwill Mih Chewachong

Its a life threatening viral infection with a high mortality rate

Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a very serious disease that has affected over 2 million and killed over 1,00,000 people in the world.

Thanks Raya Al-Naimi and Mahendra Pal for the reply.

Not dangerous but very rapidly spreading

Good answer dear Godwill Mih Chewachong

Not dangerous if taken precautions

Actually very dangrous

Take it seriously.one of my known expired today who was only 30year old.

I got Covid 19. It was like a very annoyng flu for some five days. Then I got better and it wnet away after two weeks.

Luis Frausto , glad to here you are getting better.

Thanks for sharing.

Mustafa

Nasser Said Gomaa Abdelrasheed Ghufran Aljuburi pk Malik thank you all for sharing thoughts.

COVID-19 is, indeed, very dangerous as it caused death of our colleagues, friends, and relatives.

Mahendra Pal , sorry to hear that you lost some beloved ones.

Thanks for sharing.

Mustafa

Dear Dr.Mustafa,

Many thanks to kind and sympathetic words.

Please take care of your health from Coronavirus by staying at home, maintaining social distancing, use of hand sanitizer, and consumption of immune boosting foods.

With kind regards,

Prof.Dr.Mahendra Pal

Sure it is

As of today (4th August 2020):

a) Total infected coronavirus cases: 18,516,496

a i) ACTIVE CASES: 6,085,949

a ii) CLOSED CASES: 12,430,547-

a ii.1) Recovered / Discharged: 11,731,447 (94%)

a ii.2) Deaths: 699,100 (6%)

COVID-19 are fatal especially for elderly male and those have associated comorbid conditions like hypertension, diabetes, COPD etc

Ref (data): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Have you been infected by COVID19 ? you can give a try !