How to obtain prediction intervals in multi-step ahead prediction problems when using Recurrent neural networks and the recursive strategy?

26 July 2019 1 9K Report

In the context of time series analysis, there are several multi-step ahead prediction (MSAP) strategies such as the recursive and direct strategies (the two fundamentally distinct and opposed mechanisms). The recursive strategy is the most popular one amongst practitioners. Considering that initial random weights cause inconsistency at the output of RNNs (unless it's been dealt with properly), how to quantify uncertainty over the forecast horizon. I need bands within which the forecasts oscillate.

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