The Delphi technique is a widely used and accepted method for gathering expert data, to combine opinions on expected development time about a particular technology, as well as to discover what is actually known or not known about a specific topic.

In the field of radiation therapy services, an approach similar to the Delphi methodology is proposed in [1, 2]. In these papers the failure modes and human errors are initially conceived by members of the working group on an individual and independent basis (i.e. in “blind” mode), then are collectively revised during a dedicated plenary session to reach general consensus.

However, in my opinion, the following problems are not solved:

- It is usually difficult for the experts to provide advice for example in the risk data such as the occurrence probability (i.e. to give a precise answer );

- In a comparative study performed by different groups working on the same topic but in different company contexts, the investigators found only few overlap of failure modes and human errors that were identified.

1. Ciocca M, Cantone M C, Veronese I, Cattani F, Pedroli G, Molinelli S, Vitolo V, Orecchia R 2012 Application of failure mode and effects analysis to intraoperative radiation therapy using mobile electron linear accelerators Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 82 (2) 305-11.

2. Cantone M C, Ciocca M, Dionisi F, Fossati P, Lorentini S, Krengli M, Molinelli S, Orecchia R, Schwarz M, Veronese I, Vitolo V 2013 Application of failure mode and effects analysis to treatment planning in scanned proton beam radiotherapy Radiation Oncology 8:127.

Dear Alok,

if you don't have a field data, the only way is using expert-based methods. Check the topic of the subjective probability.

Q. What kind of human action do you want to analyse? Many of them are quantified.

Best

Leszek

Thanks Giardina for your good comments and reference.

Thanks Leszek for your answer. I am lookinf for data for operator and supervisor in some specific practice, which is not available. Actually some data are available but it may be biased because generally small accidents or miss are not reported by institutions.

Dear Alok,

have you tried the TESEO method? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TESEO)

See also:

http://repository.am.szczecin.pl/bitstream/handle/123456789/160/zbigniew-burciu-jaroslaw-soliwoda.pdf?sequence=1

http://repository.am.szczecin.pl/bitstream/handle/123456789/188/zn_am_19_91_chybowski_matuszak.pdf?sequence=1

Best

Leszek

Dear Alok, I hope that the references reported below can help your research

- NUREG, INEEL/EXT-01-01166, August 2001

- NUREG/CR- 1278, SAND80-0200, 1983

- NUREGICR-4772, SAND86 – 1996

Thanks Giardina,

I saw these reports are basically for power plants. However in case of no other option can be used as reference.These are good for modeling the final values. i was looking for some shore cut, so i thing it is better to use Delphi for radiation facilities? Any comment for this? Please share  

DELPHI approach is a relatively simple method to use but does require a commitment on the part of the panel of experts and a facilitator to work to consensus to develop Human Error Probabilities (HEPs).

I think that the a critical aspect is to decide how to combine data or information of experts. You can use this method, but you must place your attention on the aggregation process.