I would highly appreciate it if my fellow ecologists (biologists) provide their opinion on the thoughts below [esp., shortly tell us which path may be more effective, if they know another way, if there is a recent breakthrough toward this goal].
To consider the effects of Acclimation and Directional Selection on populations' thermal sensitivity in the (mechanistic or phenomenological) modeling of ecological impacts of temperature variability (and climate change), we can follow two general paths:
(1) To produce enough empirical data to define simplistic indices of warm adaptation capacity (based on exposure temperature and duration) for at least some keystone species [a simple e.g., ARR; Morley et al., 2019]. Such indices can only be applied to models' outputs.
(2) To understand the GENERAL mechanisms (principal functional components) defining the heat sensitivity of various taxa [e.g., OCLTT, Pörtner, 2010], define how the component (quantitatively) relates to the capacity for rapid warm adaptation [no Ref.], and set (adaptive) feedback loops in existing models [a simple e.g., Kingsolver et al., 2016].
We don't see CO2. This is not a visible threat, but it is quite real. This means an increase in global temperatures, an increase in the number of extreme weather events, such as floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and an increase in the acidity of the oceans
Dear Jahangir Vajedsamiei
We must as ecologist comnining these two proposition, first data about climate change arrounde the world in order to modeling trend. and second, describing sensitivity of animals and plants to this change according to functional template.
But, we must understand that there are many gap between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for ecosystems.
See this study : https://scholarworks.montana.edu/xmlui/bitstream/handle/1/8741/Poulter_JEM_2014_146POSTPRINT.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Thanks for the question,
Hello Jahangir; You will want to see this paper.
Riddell, et al. 2021. Exposure to climate change drives stability or collapse of desert mammal and bird communities. Science 371(6529); 553, 633-635.
It makes comparisons over a 100 year span of time in the Mojave Desert in California. Thermoregulation!
Best regards, Jim Des Lauriers
We don't see CO2. This is not a visible threat, but it is quite real. This means an increase in global temperatures, an increase in the number of extreme weather events, such as floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and an increase in the acidity of the oceans
Bara I regret that I can't see any ways of accommodating such rapid warming changes. I am not an ecologist .The programme you have laid out looks to be a well directed attempt to find practical answers.
My concern is that the entire biosphere may be severely damaged, and individual ecosystems destroyed.
As with Ozodbek I see an urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions and stabilize the climate.
James Des Lauriers Thanks for the important answer and for suggesting a nice publication! We must definitely consider the role of fine-scale variability and the potential of different taxa to benefit from or harm by it (a kind of adaptation capacity) in response to climate change. As time passes, monitoring of environmental and biological traits will be improved, allowing us to better define such relations and test our model predictions. I see this as an essential part of both approaches (1 and 2).
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