The unpredictable nature of climate models is effectively explained by dynamical systems theory, which clarifies why different seemingly insignificant occurrences at the outset can culminate in completely different outcomes, classifying this chaos as an attribute. This perspective also elucidates the irregular and unpredictable elements of climate variability from the standpoint of their fundamental structure. By figuring out this chaotic base structure, scholars can establish the limitations of models' reliability, recognizing primary variability and refining the depiction of phenomena that feed into climate outlooks. This comprehension is important for refining the trustworthiness of short- and medium-term climate projections and evaluating the likely consequences of shifts in the climate.

The climate system can exhibit chaotic behavior due to sensitivity to initial conditions, but its chaotic nature is constrained by boundary conditions and feedback mechanisms. Past CO2 levels influence long-term dynamics through cumulative effects, not direct causation. Tipping points and bifurcations are key features, reflecting the system's dynamic complexity. While short-term weather shows chaotic traits, long-term climate is more predictable due to these constraints.

Chaotic systems are highly sensitive to initial conditions. In the climate system, par

ameters like atmospheric CO2 levels, ocean currents, or temperature can lead to different outcomes based on initial conditions. However, feedback loops (e.g., ice-albedo feedback or the carbon cycle) and boundary conditions (e.g., solar radiation) shape the system, preventing it from being entirely unpredictable, though local and short-term chaotic behaviors can occur.

There is an interesting debate to be had about whether sensitivity to initial conditions is an artefact of our models - nonlinear partial differential equations by and large - or the phenomena themselves. Can a butterfly really cause significant changes to weather thousands of miles away??

And climate models involve new phenomena emerging as a result of long-term changes. New feedback loops and the like. My worry is that we might be driving the world from individual instances of instability, eg floods and droughts, to general turbulence. Human behaviour comes into it too.