How COVID-19 and Other Infectious Diseases Spread: Mathematical Modeling
There is a paper about this topic in Alexandria Engineering Journal 2020.
Please read this paper.
There is a paper about this topic in Alexandria Engineering Journal 2020.
Please read this paper.
By taking recent samples from deffent countries and form a epidemic model to solve this type of problem.
Typically, infectious diseases are modelled via SIR-type systems. SIR stands for Susceptible-Infected-Recovered, but possibly further compartments can be introduced. See
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compartmental_models_in_epidemiology
A review of the classical approaches to mathematical modelling of epidemics can be found here:
http://www.maths.usyd.edu.au/u/marym/populations/hethcote.pdf
However, please note that:
1) since then, a lot of research has been done, especially on the issue of spatial propagation of epidemics
2) applying simple models like SIR is deceptively simple and relies on an accurate estimation of the parameters involved, which are usually subject to major uncertainties; as a consequence, extreme caution should be exercised when employing these models to make 'predictions' or compute 'scenarios'.
An assessment of different epidemics containment policies has been proposed in
Preprint Can the COVID-19 epidemic be managed on the basis of daily data?
As a first approach, you can use a SIR-like model as recently shown in [1,2] (and references therein). For a more sophisticated model see [3].
[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.03149.pdf
[2] https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.07063.pdf
[3] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.10.20033803v1
This article may be helpful;
An updated estimation of the risk of transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) ( Infectious Disease Modelling 5 (2020))
Now it is increasing in our country after it declines at the end of August
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Medicine
- Disease
- Infectious Diseases