e.g. drug x has a cure rate of 80% on a certain infectious disease. How may we incorporate this into prevalence estimates over the next 10 years?
On it's simpler form, you could think of prevalence as the incidence rate times the average duration of the disease. You could incorporate this cure rate in the average duration of the disease.
There are several assumptions to the problem. Does this cure rate change through time? Since it is an infectious disease, how does the cure rate affect the incidence of the disease?
I agree with Igor: prevalence = incidence X duration. If you are looking at the effect of a drug on prevalence, you would have to estimate the adoption of the drug (how many diseased persons are using it) and the known cure rate from the use of the drug. Often the cure rate reported in preclinical studies is different from the cure rate in actual practice. Ten years is a long time; there should be some kind of assessment of actual prevalence during that period that you could compare to the pre-drug prevalence.
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