Hello Researchers,
I have a developed a "Stochastic solar model" for the purpose of long term distribution system planning. I am aware about the indices researchers commonly use to validate Solar models like; RMSE, MBE etc.
But I face the challenge to find similar literature's (or Similar Solar prediction models) and the same Solar data set that they had used for validating the models. I'm also confused whether it is logical to use aforementioned indices for validating a "Stochastic model", because indices values are not constant.
Kindly let me know your suggestions in this regard. Thanks in advance!
You can only evaluate the quality of a model with an index like RMSE, if you are interested only in point forecasts. In the statistical literature these indices are called scoring rules. If you have developed a stochastic model and want to compare it with other stochastic models in terms of probabilistic forecasting you should use a scoring rule for distributional forecasts. I would recommend the CRPS (continuous ranked probability score) as it is easy to implement if you can simulate your model. Here you find a nice short description:
https://www.lokad.com/continuous-ranked-probability-score
I recently used the CRPS for a comparison of different stochastic models for electricity load and was quite satisfied with the results.
- Badges
- Science topic
- Similar topics
- Correction