Hello Everyone! Could any one recommend me better time series model for forecasting gross agricultural production growth with less statistical noise?
I want to indulge ones nation overall agricultural production growth sustainability by using over 10 years panel data.
Could you recommend me the appropriate, straightforward and accurate an econometric model to forecast precisely. Which endogenous and exogenous variables should be tested for better policy input?
Thank you!
https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Haimanot_Bazezew?ev=hdr_xprf&_sg=B6Fb4mrTXX393XRwNJkyZlcCjydfkJQf01auo2xn9X93gJw4s7-kM0Nh73QTr2nq
Dear Haimanot,
In Brazil we have some very interesting models. Usually they depend on some meteorological or satellite imagery data. Otherwise, take a look at the following paper from FAO. http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/ess/documents/meetings_and_workshops/GS_SAC_2013/Improving_methods_for_crops_estimates/Crop_Yield_Forecasting_Methods_and_Early_Warning_Systems_Lit_review.pdf
#Thanks all!
@ Md.Nazirul Islam Sarker!
You touched the exact answer I have thought.
However, when we see the inherent of agricultural production mostly connected to input-output variables. meanwhile, even combined models are suggested to use together, such as Cobb-Douglas, thus, this way of research may not be smooth for beginner like me. I have benefited a lot from your concrete comments and help.
for time series models, it is vital to have large datasets especially for prediction.for limited datasets you can use ARDLboundmodel.
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