In industrial engineering, forecasting is one of the key tools we used in making production decision. My question is, does forecasting only involves mathematical tool such as (correlation) or does it also involves philosophical logic?
There are philosophical assumptions involved since you are assuming that current events will somehow influence the future behavior of the predicted phenomenon.There is also an assumption that one variable somehow influences another. Such behavior can be subject to some causal model that is subject to philosophical debate.
Thanks sir Arturo Geigel
I am of your thought sir, I think to make more accurate decision it involves philosophical logic and debate.
Dear Mr. Alare!
Wow, you spotted a crucial point. In my experience now during coronavirus pandemic we must focus on the application side of forecasting which includes definitely math, and philosophical logic as well. I do not know which feature is more important, rather I argue they are related to one another:
1) CDC (2020). "Cases, Data & Surveillance: COVID-19 Forecasting: Background Information- Why COVID-19 Forecasting Is Important" Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), Division of Viral Diseases, U.S. Department of Health & Human Services August 8, 2020, Available at: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/forecasting.html
2) Richard O. J. H. Stutt et al. (2020). "A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic" The Royal Society Publishing, 18 May 2020, Open Access, © 2020 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, Available at:
Article A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of ...
3) Tim Rhodes & Karl Lanchester (2020). ""Mathematical models as public troubles in COVID-19 infection control: following the numbers" Journal of Heath Sociology Review, Volume 29, Issue 2: Special Section on ‘Sociology and the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic’ 13 May 2020, Open Access, © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group Available at: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14461242.2020.1764376?needAccess=true
In so forecasting is related to the philosophy of risk perception:
4) Sarah Dryhurst et al.(2020). "Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world " Journal of Risk Research, 05 May 2020, Open Access © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group, Available at;
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/13669877.2020.1758193?needAccess=true
5) A case -study: Ashis Talukde (2020). "Susceptible‐Infectious‐Recovered (SIR) model based forecasting of COVID‐19 outbreak in Bangladesh" The International Journal of Clinical Practice 6 August 2020, Free Access, Copyright © 1999-2020 John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Available at:
Article Susceptible‐Infectious‐Recovered (SIR) model based forecasti...
Yours sincerely, Bulcsu Szekely
Sometimes , Scientists works with philosophical logic too especially industrialists
Mila Ilieva
What do we mean when we say "philosophical logic"?
It looks to me that forecasting would work this way:
If causal condition M as a whole does not change, then correlative result N as a whole does not change;
there is no reason to believe that causal condition M will change;
so correlative result N is forecasted.
Problems like reinforcing bias is due to N participating in M.
I am not sure if my understanding is correct.
Your last statement is logic itself Xinyuan gu
When conditions are given we are philosophising with logic tools using statistical modeling in this case because the conditions M are not figures
Both in my opinion, the forcasting methods have foundations on mathematical logic and reasoning which in itself is a branch of philosophy.
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