My work with Atin Basu and Bill Shughart, Predicting State Failure: A Classification Tree Approach, predicts something like this for a civilian-led, not-too-poor, weakly democratic regime like Egypt.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/04/world/middleeast/egypt.html?hp&_r=2&
it maybe does. But you see nothing really happens in the middle east as a result of endogenous causes only. There must be exogenous reasons behind what's happening. Many other countries are poor, corrupted lacking democracy but no "spring" has yet blossomed. Definitely social injustices play a key role in what's going on for Egypt at least. In Turkey I think it's a total different issue. Mainly driven by Kurds who have always revolted against the Turkish government because they represent a minority and were always repressed
Actually, the whole point of the paper is that: (1) many countries will have different reasons for failing (and hence parametric cross-country analysis are flawed); and (2) civilian led, middle income countries with democratic elections (like Turkey and now Egypt again) can fail (and may fail with higher probability than certain types of autocratic regimes). Read the paper carefully, if you haven't already.
We actually presented this paper at a conference RIGHT BEFORE the most recent uprisings in Egypt. We used Egypt as a motivational example of how our model might be useful to predict adverse regime change, then... well, you know the rest.
True totally agree. Your methodology is flawless but army coups in egypt are not really reassuring. In terms of Egypt, I think we should both wait to see the upcoming elections results. My point is that the problem in egypt goes well beyond mere points you've discussed that are purely based on levels of governance etc. The problem is more likely to be related with Islamists in the region and the rise of the brotherhood. Tunisia for instance faces the same problem. Turkey seems for me at least a bit less related to the issue of islamists and more related to your paper.
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