Edwin Anakadi Butiya Juma

Climate variability can significantly contribute to the rise in urban crime rates in developing countries through a range of direct and indirect mechanisms. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns influence social behavior, economic stability, and the functioning of urban systems. Higher temperatures are often associated with increased violent crime, as heat can lead to heightened irritability and aggression, while extreme weather events such as floods or droughts can cause economic stress, displacement, and infrastructure disruption, further complicating security conditions in cities. In the context of poverty, unemployment, and inadequate institutional support—common challenges in developing countries—climate variability can exacerbate existing social tensions and increase the likelihood of criminal activity. Therefore, climate considerations must be integrated into urban development strategies and security policies to mitigate the risks associated with rising crime.

Here are some case studies that are useful.

Jonescu, E.E., Ramanayaka, C.E., Olatunji, O.A. et al. Understanding the impact of urban heat islands on crime: insights from temperature, population density, and green canopy cover. Crime Sci 13, 15 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-024-00214-w

Article Climate Change, Temperature and Homicide: A Tale of Two Citi...

Climate variability can exacerbate urban crime in developing countries by intensifying economic stress, increasing displacement, and straining public infrastructure, although causality requires nuanced, interdisciplinary investigation considering socio-economic and political factors.