though I can't specifically answer your question in one sentence, I'd like to direct your attention to one publication you might find useful in this matter. It is called "The influence of financial incentives and other socio-economic factors on electric vehicle adoption", which I have attached for your convenience. It is interesting to note that EV infrastructure seems to have en even bigger impact on EV adoption than financial incentives.
thank you for attached paper. It is very interesting, but I'm still wondering on what basis financial incentives were set. Buying an EV you can obtain for instance in Sweden ca. 4400 USD, in France up to 6300 EUR, and in China up to 8000 USD (amounts from central governmnent's programs). Is it solely about budget and "generosity of ministry of finance"? Or rather based on a survey among consumers and price elasticity of their demand? Or is it the difference between TCO/TCM for ICEV and EV? ...
Hubert, my understanding is that it is a mix of the two: some rough understanding of battery costs and TCO gaps, along with practical fiscal constraints. I have never seen (not to say they don't exist) a government doing an objective, detached analysis to set incentive amounts so as to hit some target level of EV market share.
As Bismarck said: "Politics is the art of the possible."
BTW I read your article "Help or hindrance..." - very interesting, just like your doctoral dissertation which I cited in https://www.researchgate.net/publication/317826571_Analysis_of_the_Potential_of_Autonomous_Vehicles_in_Reducing_the_Emissions_of_Greenhouse_Gases_in_Road_Transport
Best regards,
Hubert
Article Analysis of the Potential of Autonomous Vehicles in Reducing...