TOURISM IDENTIFIED: In order to measure, one need to specify specific type of tourism. One country may have more then one type. The demand for tourism may be estimated according to its type or adjective describing it. These may include:

Agritourism

Birth tourism

Culinary tourism

Cultural tourism

Extreme tourism

Geotourism

Ghetto tourism

Heritage tourism

Medical tourism

Nautical tourism

Pop-culture tourism

Religious tourism

Sex tourism

Slum tourism

Virtual tourism

War tourism

Wellness tourism

Wildlife tourism        ........ see link to wikipedia.

ASSESSMENT: After particular sectors of tourism are identified, we can track their growth year-by-year. For the non-growth area, we may assess their potential if the factors influencing their growth could be identified. Thus, there are at least two areas: (i) currently growing, and (ii) potential to grow. For the currently growing, one can use trend test to verify their magnitude and direction. The available tools may include: (i) the Military Handbook Test, and (ii) La Place Trend Test.

(i) Military Handbook Test: This test is based on chi-square distribution as a test for significance. The test is given by:

(1)   X2r2 = 2 Σ ln(Tend / Ti)

... X2 = chi-square value; ln = natural log base e; T = arrival time of event; and r = number of events (sample size). The chi-square table is given by degree of freedom and critical value to test the significance. Ho: X2(obs) < X2(Table) means not significant trend and HA: X2(obs) > X2(Table).

(ii) La Place trend Test: the second method uses the Z-test. The test statistic is given by:

(2)   Z = sqrt(12r) [Σ (Ti -(Tend / 2)] / rTend

... Z = observed Z value with this value look for F(Z) = % confidence int he Z-table; Tx = as defined above.

THE CHALLENGE FOR UNDEVELOPED SUBSECTORS: For the sub-sectors in tourism that has T value, i.e. posting dollar amount earning per year, we can test its trend. The significance of trend test here allow the researcher to estimate growth magnitude and direction and policy makers can also assess whether to invest in such a sub-sector. The challenge is to test for potential growth in certain sub-sectors that we want to develop but has no data, i.e. undeveloped sector. here, we could only answer whether such sub-sectors have potential in a form of (Yes | No); this is reduced to binomial and discrete data analysis. First list factors that are required for the sub-sector that needs to be develop and score whether the sub-sector have the factors present (yes) or not (no). Score yes = 1 and no = 0. The probability of success under the La Place Rule of Succession is given by:

(3)   p = (s + 1) / (n + 2)     where s = number of yes counts.

The probability of failure (no) is simply;

(4)   q = 1 - p

The potential may be verified through probability determination of P(X) given by:

(5)   P(X) = [n! / (n - X)!X!] AB       ...where X = number to be tested

(5.1)   A = pX

(5.2)   B = q(n - X)

The test for significance may be accomplished through:

(6)   Z = [(X / n) - p] / sqrt(pq / n)

This is to assume normal distribution of the data because Z-test uses the Z-table (unit normal distribution). According to this set up, of Z(obs) < Z(0.95), it means that sector is not significant. Dont' bother investing in it because it does not have the infrastructure to support its growth.  I hope this is helpful to get you started on the project. Cheers.

http://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/apr/section2/apr234.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tourism

Hello Ruben,

You can try this one and see if it works for you:

http://hrcak.srce.hr/file/112483

Best regards,

Damir

Hi Paul,

I would like to thank you for your contribution. I have never read anything about both Military Handbook and La Place Trend tests. Unfortunately, they are related to demand and how to measure it and I want to focus my research in attractions and their potential. Nevertheless, I'm going to check the links because it is likely to use them in others investigations.

Best regard,

Rubén.

Hi Damír,

You hit the nail on the head! The paper you recommended me is in line with my interests. It aims for assessing attractiveness as a global concept to destination in which tourism attractions are included. However, the variables identified are focusing on general assessment of the destination but no attention to the features of the tourism attraction have been kept in mind. Besides, the methodology to calculate weightings for each variable and factor have not been neIther explained. Despite of all, It will help me a lot!.

Thank you very much indeed.

Rubén.

Hi Ruben,

I am glad you find this paper useful. The methodology applied to calculate the weightings can be found here: http://www.oecd.org/std/42495745.pdf , pp. 89-91.

According to this methodology, the weightings are the squares of factor loadings, since this represents the proportion of the total unit variance of the

indicator which is explained by the factor. Unfortunately, as explained by the manual, this is not the measure of the theoretical importance of the associated indicator and different weighting procedures are producing different weights. The thing is that most of the tourism researchers uncritically accept FA (EFA or CFA) as the most appropriate procedure for weight calculation, which is, in my opinion, very questionable practice. For example, the problem of choosing appropriate weighting procedure for indicators of tourism sustainability is discussed in this paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X14003926

Best regards,

Damir

Hi Ruben,

1. Attractiveness of destinations, being a relative measure, and composed of attributes, may be interpreted as "competitiveness". If thus conceived  I would recommend 1st link.

2. Attractions as in "destinations" may be assessed for their sustainability, in which case ecological considerations of carrying capacity and lifecycle models might be relevant. I recommend 2nd link. I have proposed: "flocking capacity"- third link

3. I prefer the idea of resilience as opposed to sustainability. Resilience has a stronger scientific tone to it and the research program backing it. While sustainability has in recent times been watered-down to a "rallying call for action." See fourth link

4. Something more speculative and forward-looking that emphasizes the economics of attractiveness can be assessed through the idea of willingness to pay (WTP)- fifth link

All the best,

Bernard

http://www.sustainabletourismonline.com/awms/Upload/Resource/bookshop/Crouch_modelDestnComp-web.pdf.

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/iczm/pdf/tcca_en.pdf

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1f4gKDafAeWekhud0ZrN2dXSk0/edit?pli=1

http://earthmind.net/marine/docs/arin-kramer-divers-wtp.pdf

Conference Paper FLOCKING TRAVELLERS: THE MIND-SPACE TETHER

Yes maybe something akin to what is happening to the airlines in terms of the bundling and unbundling of services-a kind of DIY tourism- the more modular it is the more attractive it becomes.To be supplemented by integrated platforms that leverage on the economies of scale-such as all-day passes. Nothing new but if scaled upwards may prove to be innovative enough to be attractive, touristically. 

You might have a look at those two works:

• Huang, Y. & Bian, L. (2009). A Bayesian network and analytic hierarchy process based personalized recommendations for tourist attractions over the Internet. Expert Systems with Applications 36(1): 933-943.
• Hsu, F.-M., Lin, Y.-T. & Ho, T.-K (2012). Design and implementation of an intelligent recommendation system for tourist attractions: The integration of EBM model, Bayesian network and Google Maps. Expert Systems with Applications 39(3): 3257-3264.

Both are applying Bayesian Network models for determining the probabilities of tourist attractions appealing to particular tourists.

And maybe you find also our recent research note at ENTER 2015 interesting, which is about "Probabilistic Modelling of Influences on Travel Decision Making" (see link)

Conference Paper Probabilistic Modelling of Influences on Travel Decision Making

Hi Shian_Loong,

Thank you very much for you interest in answering about my topic. I'm going to check them profusely, especially the second one. I'm afraid the first and forth are biased towards economic scope. 

Best regards,

Rubén

Hi Mario,

The papers you recommended me are in line with my interest, but they just analise the other side of the same coin. Perhaps the methodology is likely to be more apropiate than mine and I'm considering to apply to my research. 

Thanks Mario for your contribution!

Best regards, 

Rubén

I think you are talking about market appeal and yes a marketing situation analysis will no doubt help with that. For a fuller account of what can be done with types of attractions you list, please see my recent update of the book on Cultural Tourism with Bob McKercher 

Hi Hilary, thanks for your recommendation!. I'm going to check my library in order to find out its availability (I'm not really sure they have it). There are lots of methodologies related to this, but most of them present some bias. I would like to apply one that encompasses a whole view about tourist attraction assessment, regardless of the nature of the attraction.

Keep in touch.

Rubén. 

dear rubin arnadez,

take a look at the following to see if it interests you:

Moreira, P., & Iao, C., 2014. A Longitudinal Study on the Factors of Destination Image, Destination Attraction and Destination Loyalty. International Journal of Social Sciences, III(3), pp. 90-112.

http://www.iises.net/?p=11272

Moreira, P., & Iao, C. (2013). A Study on Destination Image and the Behavioral Factors of Destination Loyalty. International Journal of Social Sciences, II(2), 76–94.

http://www.iises.net/?p=8321

Moreira, P. (2012). Economic competition, sustainability and survival endurance: The extinction of the dodo, the Easter Island case and the tragedy of the commons effect. Higher Learning Research Communications Journal, 2(4), 23-36.

http://journals.sfu.ca/liu/public/site/downloads/Volume2Issue4.pdf

Moreira, P. (2010). Destinations as travel attractors: Economic growth, the perception of access, and the importance of transportation networks. Proceedings from the International Conference NZTHRC 2010, Auckland, New Zealand, organized by the Auckland University of Technology Auckland, New Zealand, and the New Zealand Tourism Research Institute.

http://autserve.aut.ac.nz/nzthrc/images/files/ProceedingsOfThe2010NZTHRCAt17Nov.PDF

Moreira, P. (2009). The impact of powerful icons on destination image and destination branding and marketing. Proceedings from the 3rd International Conference on Destination Branding and Marketing, Macau SAR, PR China, jointly organized by the Institute For Tourism Studies, Macau SAR, PR China; University of South Carolina, United States of America; Purdue University, United States of America; and Sun Yat-Sen University, PR China.

http://brochures.nhtv.nl/scriptiebank/documenten/3rd%20Proceedings%20Destination%20Branding%20and%20marketing.pdf

Moreira, P. (2009). The value of air access: First empirical results of a contrast model comparing objective access and access perception. Proceedings from the 11th Pacific Science International Congress 2009 Pacific Countries and their Ocean Facing Local and Global Changes, Tahiti, French Polynesia, organized by the Governments of France and French Polynesia in association with the Pacific Science Association, Honolulu, Hawaii.

http://webistem.com/psi2009/output_directory/cd1/Data/articles/000612.pdf

i have a few others in the research gate list and some more on the full list at google scholar. most of them are available from the journals websites but if you need a pdf copy that you cannot find send me a message.

best regards, pedro moreira

I always feel that the best way if tracking and monitoring the attractiveness of any tourism activity is not simply a theoretical approach but very much an inclusive process involving the key stakeholders here - the local authorities, the local businesses and the local community.....obviously attractiveness depends on key indicator that remains an important issue - popularity.

Hi Pedro,

I'm afraid that your papers are slighly economic-based and marketing-based. Attractiveness can be measured by different ways, depending on the researcher's discipline (this is, at least, what I have observed it). I would like to focus my research on a global view about how resources (natural and cultural) must be analyzed in order to obtain an objective assessment of their potential. Nevertheless, I'm going to check your papers right now)

Hi Julian,

I could not agree with you more. In fact, I am considering new ways to assess potential of tourism attractions (of course, before they were) and local community must be in. The problem arise when I have to select the items to calcule it, ¿which ones would be the most appropriate?