Why or why not? What are the main factors involved in the current low oil prices?
One reason for low oil prices is oversupply. I expect that this will end during 2016 due to a strong demand side and a weak supply side. In 2014 and 2015 growth in supply was greater than growth in demand. A risk is China (demand) and the abillity of Iran to ramp up production if the sanctions are lifted (supply).
If you look at actual prices they are below short run marginal costs. I don't expect that producers 'burn' their money over months.
But recovery of prices will take a long time. OPEC is not willing to reduce market share. Thus, the market has to find a new equilibrium itself. And this will take more time than in 2009.
The oil price will remain low in 2016, because the economical sanctions have been gotten back against Iran... That is true only in a case of actual political situation... If happennig an unexpected event which affect oil extraction... or happenning something with Petrodollar....
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