Earth’s Carbon cycle and Temperature
Slow Carbon Cycle:
Carbon takes around 100 – 200 million years to move through rocks, soil, ocean and atmosphere.
10 - 100 million metric tons of carbon move through Slow Carbon cycle per annum.
10,000 – 1,00,000 million metric tons of carbon move through Fast Carbon cycle per annum.
Earth naturally absorbs (by oceans and forests) and emits (undersea volcanos and hydrothermal vents) around 100 billion metric tons of carbon per annum (roughly equivalent to 400 billion tons of CO2).
CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels in 2023: Roughly 40 billion metric tons.
Ratio: CO2 Emissions from fossil fuels amounts to just 10% of natural CO2 emission and absorption by earth.
Moral
Overall carbon cycle, over a very long term, is expected to maintain a balance, which keeps earth’s temperature to remain to be relatively stable.
However, over a relatively shorter time period, earth fluctuates between ice ages and warmer interglacial periods, where, parts of carbon cycle may even intensify the short-term temperature changes (which, we keep experiencing now), and thereby significantly affecting the stability of earth’s temperature.
Nature will take care the balance of carbon-cycle as well as temperature on its own, but very slowly.
Leaving aside altering earth's climate, Have we understood the nature (including the 'coupled' effect of Milankovitch theory: eccentricity/obliquity/precession; cirrus clouds effect; albedo effect; urban island effect; El Nino effect) in a single (human) life span? Even, if it is so, whether, all the fundamental laws remain valid for such a complex system?
Even, if smarter one manages to convince that the earth's climate system be modelled precisely, how will the model results be validated (in the absence of any future data)??
If not, how do we forecast? [Only recent temperature data remains to be satellite based, while we used thermometers (which just measures the degrees of hotness) earlier. Before 1624??]
Do we have a well-defined 'Conceptual Model' and its respective 'Mathematical Model' (assuming that we have a super computer for numerical model) that forecasts
how exactly climate change
will affect
extreme precipitation events
and sea levels?
Which conceptualization
has led to the prediction that
CO2 emissions from fossil fuels,
particularly from oil & gas industries
have led to the rise
in mean global temperature?
Is there any specific
spatial and temporal scales
over which
these climate models work?
With 428 ppm as on date,
feasible to distinguish
the CO2 emissions
from various sources?
Suresh Kumar Govindarajan
https://home.iitm.ac.in/gskumar/
https://iitm.irins.org/profile/61643
A bizarre question. Mathematics (in fact, Geophysical models using mathematical approaches) based models are used to predict future climates for different climate regions on Earth. They can be validated based on back casting! Which is seldomly done, by the way! A model altering climates on Earth? That requires more explanation from your side, to actually get a grasp, on what you have in mind? With which boundary conditions? Not clear to me! Is it for you? I don't say it might be impossible, but just imagine what the boundary conditions would be to realize such a venture! We cannot even predict meteorological phenomena a month in advance! Let alone change climates on Earth! Honestly, would you dare to speculate on how this should be brought into the real world?
#NoMercyCV