I would like to know if it is always the case that subsidies on fertilizer prices under favorable weather condition lead to increased productivity of farmers' fields? If not, under which conditions/scenarios may this fail to be true/hold?
A mixture of factors can contribute to the success of subsidies (fertilizers).
In addition to favorable weather conditions as with rain-fed agriculture, access to the tendency of farmers to access subsidized fertilizers is crucial.
Complementary technologies including crop varieties that have high fertilizer response, as well as agronomic practices are important.
Production alone is not enough to induce supply. Market (institution and infrastructure) are critical for effective supply.