Dear Reanaud,

Perhaps more than antisocial behavior ("homo homini lupus", where the man is a wolf to other men) it is about unconsciousness and lack of education.

UK strange behaviour at highest level https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/23/new-witnesses-cast-doubt-on-dominic-cummingss-lockdown-claims

To me it does not look like a lack of education, more like a lack of care

Good contribution Silvius Stanciu.

@Silvius Stanciu

In the refered case it's not a lack of education, someone with degree from Oxford University, with prominent lawyers and scholar in the family

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominic_Cummings

The answer must be somewhere else.

Any explanation for why Law is not complied to by well informed people?

Italy: sharing link on exodus from North (wealthy, many hospitals) to the South (unemployment, fewer hospitals)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/08/leaked-coronavirus-plan-to-quarantine-16m-sparks-chaos-in-italy

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-parties-herd-immunity.html

@Mutasem Z. Bani-Fwaz

There is a probability over 1/3 to be infected at a meal where someone is infected.

See also the recently reported case in Germany of a newly opened restaurant with 7 people infected at this first meal, 50 people quarantined after tracing contacts of these 7 persons.

And Germany is very careful...

Detailed reference:

[Source Rbb inforadio today]

In the Lower Saxony district of Leer, eleven people are now infected with Corona in connection with a visit to a restaurant. The Health Department ordered quarantine for around 70 contacts. The starting point of the infections was an event for the opening of a restaurant. The operator explained that the invited guests had complied with distance and hygiene rules. Another focus of infection is with more than 40 cases in Hessen. There are visitors to a church service in a Baptist church in Frankfurt am Main.

Following

Good Question

Good Contribution Dear Renaud Di Francesco

It is lack of social awareness

Carelessness and the unconscious are sometimes considered as adopted values for many people who do not have the capacity to grasp the complexity of existence.

multiple reasons could be - lack of awareness ( very difficult as media is full of COVID), lack of acceptance ( more likely denial phase), underlying untreated neurotic or psychiatric illnesses and lastly false sense of security by use of local unproven prophylactic measures

In India, it seems many workers had to go back home, because they had no other way

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-52776442/coronavirus-india-death-and-despair-as-migrant-workers-flee-cities

Case of France: exodus from Paris to rural areas, just before lockdown.

Source: Europe1 and AFP

Translation FR to EN by google

"17% of Parisians have left the city before lockdown", according to Martin Hirsch

7:08 p.m., March 20, 2020

Many Parisians left the capital before the lockdown came into effect. © AFP

·

Martin Hirsch announced at a press conference on Friday afternoon that 17% of Parisians would have left the city before the confinement linked to the coronavirus epidemic. The director general of the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) indicated that this calculation was based on electricity consumption in the capital.

According to the Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP), 17% of Parisians left the city before the establishment of containment to slow down the epidemic of coronavirus that is raging in France . These calculations, announced the director general of the AP-HP Martin Hirsch, are based on the drop in electricity consumption for 48 hours. Their objective was to assess the number of people who would be likely to be repatriated to the AP-HP hospitals in the event of contamination.

The annoyance of the inhabitants in the region

This "exodus" has not escaped the inhabitants of other regions, particularly annoyed by this behavior. "It's worry and nervousness in fact. It's both at the same time because all the Parisians are there. We see them walking around town, going to the bakery, to the supermarket", s annoyed Nicolas, a resident of a village in the Loiret interviewed by Europe 1. Here, the townspeople have reopened the shutters of their second homes "as if it were vacation" he regrets.

Anne Le Brun, the mayor of Morlaix in Finistère, dreads the saturation of health structures. "In our territories, there are phenomena of medical desertification. We are generally just-in-time," she explains. "Given the population that is flocking, we end up with hospitals that are no longer the size of the population housed," said the mayor.

📷

By Maxime Dewilder

UK news: Covid19 is dividing the UK ruling party, over compliance or not to Covid19 Safety rules for prominent politicians (from this same party).

The inner circle of government, ministers, supported what the press highlighted as a case of non-compliance. The broader circle of elected members of Parliament required the faulty person to be dismissed.

On one side the yes-men/women, on the other those afraid of supporting rules for the masses not applying to "happy fews".

Will Covid19 remove from the inner circle the "Brain behind Brexit"?

We observers, just wait, while the press comments

Reference:

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-cummings/uk-conservative-lawmakers-call-on-pms-adviser-to-quit-over-lockdown-drive-idUKKBN230072

Let's Break the Chain of COVID-19 Infection:

https://learn.mbru.ac.ae/courses/covid19

Dear Renaud Di Francesco

The general approach and medical concept in the UK is it, and has been self-immunization. They have a medical system based on avoiding antibiotics, I know because I lived for a few months in England for a research internship. They considered COVID-19 a simple flu, after which they got scared when the situation started to overcome them.

AND....

Probably not really a defiance of the law, they still consider self-immunization a solution. Which is not wrong, after all, I believe. If the vaccine is not found, it will be the only way to live with the virus.

@Silvius Stanciu, with already 40 000 people in their grave, herd immunity was not such a good idea. A Prime Minister unavailable missing 5 National Emergency Meetings, in Intensive Care Unit, that's also a risk for any democracy.

This disease is very contagious, as illustrated by models like:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/341132136_Covid-19_Modelling_propagation_with_Agent_Based_Models_ABM_-Large_events_and_crowds_-Households_in_lockdown/citations

Renaud Di Francesco

you are correct with many observations.

In other countries leading persons had to go over breaking the government rules.

Cummings will stay I fear...

Ask Barry Turner

He asked Cummings to step down before and is asking it again...

This man (Cummings) is dangerous. He will not simply go...

A question within a question...!

Which country has a single person so fundamentally central to its future policy that that person is, in the biggest crisis we have seen in a century exempt from the law and all the norms of social behaviour?

Is it Mr Xi's China?

Is it Mr Putin's Russia?

Is it even Mr Trump's America?

No, it's Boris Johnson's Britain.

The person is so fundamentally central to Boris's rather insular and truncated world view is Dominic Cummings. A non-elected spin doctor ridiculously described as a strategic advisor of genius.

That 'genius' extends as far as the confidence, or more accurately hubris of knowing he could get away with a flagrant breach of everything we lesser beings have been told was essential to beat this virus.

Lesser beings have been fined and humiliated by the police for what we are now told was a fatherly instinct. Single mums, and dads with 'child care issues' and no second home retreat at the other end of the country have, well sort have muddled through.

Of all the many disgraces that this natural tragedy has flagged up this is close to the hideous hoarding and profiteering that we saw at the beginning of the crisis.

If Johnson does't want to sack Cummings there is a problem. If he can't sack Cummings then we have a problem far bigger than Covid-19

Covid19 puts the question of the rule of law, of its enforcement, and of Justice.

Covid19 is the same for all countries, hence it's a key opportunity for people to compare government's behaviours facing the same issue (Covid19, recession likely after it)

Michael Kowalik

It is a bit surprising in the way it is presented, because classical casuistry (the Jesuistic school of thought) aims at reducing the gravity of direct responsibility, by associating mitigating factors to each of the cases distinguished:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casuistry

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_Jesus

I would agree with you to rephrase and reframe the argument, with the following premises:

-Covid19 propagation costs lives now (100 000+ in the USA, 40 000+ in the UK, etc)

-Herd Immunity amounts to a legend, which is nice as long as you think it's good to be immune once you're in your grave, or burnt to ashes.

Walking on corpses... Those of elderly care homes etc...

Your proposal is to trade certain loss of lives now for potential less risk in the future?

Why not protect lives now and stay vigilant on the front of future risks you highlighted?

Note that there is a classical wisdom in the Hippocratic Oath:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hippocratic_Oath

in particular

" I will use treatment to help the sick according to my ability and judgment, but never with a view to injury and wrong-doing. "

This is core to medical ethics...

Michael Kowalik

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory

The events are combination of attributes "healthy" "infectious", the agents are people, and additional events triggering transitions.

I assume that those proclaimed experts and advisers mentioned above have had a chance to get familiar with this basic framework developed in the 17th century, and enhanced up to this day. Bayesian models are everywhere, including medical biological diagnosis.

Would it not be the case, a retraining is highly recommended for each of them.

Researchgate is not just a talking shop, our focus is research:

specifically on Covid19 modelling see for instance:

Article Covid19 ABM propagation in an elderly care home: -a simple A...

https://www.hadean.com/blog/using-agent-based-models-in-contagion-modelling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agent-based_model

agaist the social eugenicists Renaud says

Your proposal is to trade certain loss of lives now for potential less risk in the future?

That more or less sums up the moral standing of such positions

Well, these people would be alive with high probability today, were it not for Covid19

The rest is blabla, for which I have no time

Revisionism is ideological, not rational.

It starts with challenging death records, and continues with the promotion of criteria beyond human.

If you cannot see it, be forgiven. No one can be blamed for what he/she fails to see.

Covid19 killed many humans, "homo sum et nihil rerum mortalium mini alienum" (Terentius dixit)

Referring to above input

1) The case was made on preferring to "maybe save lives in the future" versus "protecting lives now".

2) Accepted and validated statistics on death were challenged, not even noting that such data are below what the final inventory might give (See: the data literate analysts of the Financial Times, the data analysts of Reuters, the national statistical institutes of the world, etc)

3) The Hippocratic Oath, should be our reference when it comes to protecting human lives in a sanitary emergency. Fuzzy moral grounds where protecting human life now is not a main criteria should be discarded.

Nice answer dear Renaud Di Francesco

Respected Research gate members,

1) Concerning the text input as " hypothetical objection to the method of saving lives now ", the meta-text qualifying it should be read in conjunction with it: the author is speaking hypothetically, and his discussion text is not his ultimate view.

2) Concerning the approach to advocate and minimise the "real impact" of death caused by Covid19, we see it as a dangerous path which has commonalities with revisionism.

Revisionism is best exemplified by right extreme movements negating the holocaust, and to do so they started by minimising death statistics.

Covid19 revisionists negate the extent of the damage caused by the virus.

We might validly ask ourselves why? ... This is not my object here.

3) Furthermore, the total of Covid19 casualties can be estimated in terms of surplus deaths, using a Bayesian analysis.

Can I recommend revisiting with a genuine eye Bayesian analysis, which has proven its practical use, in AI latest, it's time well invested. It was successfully used to determine the key factors of specific cancers e.g. already in the 1970s.

The household contamination effect is present: if you are locked down in a small space, where you share bathroom, and meals with a person infected, it can be estimated that within 2 days (6 meals) your probability to be infected will be above 0.9! (Using data from Robert Koch Institute quoted in German newspaper SZ)

Detailed model (basic and rough, to get an estimate) here:

Article Covid-19: Modelling propagation with Agent Based Models (ABM...

This shows that the social inequality amplifies the risk: imagine 6 people in a 3 room apartment, one bathroom, compared with 2 people in a large house with several bathrooms, a garden, multiple kitchen and living room spaces.

Benefits of Lockdown

Now the comparison of no lockdown versus a lockdown has been made in detail with comparable data of American Cities during the 1918 pandemic (improperly called Spanish flu). Lockdowns reduced death peaks:

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7313

I suggest questions are asked to the Top Expert, Professor Stephen S. Morse , who happens to be on researchgate.

The dramatic propagation in crowds has been observed. A simple model for it is also mathematically detailed here:

Article Covid-19: Modelling propagation with Agent Based Models (ABM...

To exemplify how this huge risk materialises, let us recall the Bergamo-Valencia football game, the 8th March public demonstrations in Barcelona (50000 participants?) and Madrid (120 000?).

Thanks to contributors!

I have taken account of their remarks, and sharpened the text of my own input, removing anything peripheral.

Time to ask again the question maybe:

Covid19: how many don't care to knowingly spread the virus?

Have you observed dangerous behaviours:

-people endangering themselves?

-people endangering others

I found an interesting article on this issue, from behavioural scientists here:

"Don't get it or don't spread it? Comparing self-interested versus prosocially framed COVID-19 prevention messaging" J Jordan, E Yoeli, D Rand - 2020

https://psyarxiv.com/yuq7x

Very good job

Good question

Following

Anti-pandemic (home and other quarantine) and sanitary (hand decontamination, etc.) instruments introduced in many countries slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic (causing Covid-19 disease) and reduce the scale of the pandemic. According to prognostic studies, in some countries, by June 2020, around 70 percent society may be infected with SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus. So at the end of 2020, the number will likely rise to over 90 percent. Because of those infected with this coronavirus, about 80 percent infection with this virus is asymptomatic or just like any other viral cold, so at the end of 2020 it can be concluded that society has acquired a natural, collective immunity to this virus. Introduced anti-pandemic (home quarantine, restrictions on movement in public places and others) and sanitary (instruments wearing protective masks, hand sanitizing, etc.) measures only slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic. According to current forecasts, in a few months the situation should be fully controlled, the pandemic should be already in the decline phase, in the extinction phase. Nowadays, more and more information is appearing in many countries from day to day showing that the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic is stabilizing or entering the onset of the decline phase. Therefore, the end date of the pandemic is relatively close. On the other hand, some countries began to lift and reduce the stringent anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments introduced usually in March this year. In a relationship, there is apparently a strong correlation between the scale and development phase of a pandemic and the more and less stringent anti-pandemic and sanitary security instruments being introduced. In addition, an important factor that should be added to the analysis of this correlation are carried out prognostic analyzes, in which, based on forecasting models, forecasts for development and / or pandemic expiration are prepared. To some extent, when deciding on the scale of stringent, introduced and reduced anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments, the issue of results obtained from prognostic models is also taken into account. A significant part of the currently used prognostic models for analyzing pandemic development (or other multifactorial, large data sets) is based on Big Data Analytics analysis regarding quantitative historical data on the number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus, including those diagnosed with this virus in the body on the basis of tests carried out, people suffering from Covid-19 disease, people who died from this disease (and to a certain extent from the occurrence of other diseases and co-morbidities in the body) and people who are highly likely to be infected with Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, but they did not know it (currently this part of the population may already be relatively the largest in the pandemic countries). When constructing prognostic models, the key assumptions of impact factors and thus creating projections for the development and / or expiry of a pandemic are formulated on the basis of current knowledge in the field of virology and immunology, sanitary and public safety, etc., including current information on therapeutic therapies used (e.g. based on blood plasma containing naturally produced antibodies), vaccine development prospects, anti-pandemic and sanitary safety instruments used (e.g. home quarantine, restrictions on movement in public places, wearing protective masks, frequent hand decontamination, etc.) and the results of previous tests and analyzes of the effectiveness of these key determinants mentioned above. In view of the above, it is important to constantly improve the forecasting models built, which should have a dynamic formula, constantly updated. According to current prognostic models, in a few to several weeks the majority of citizens in many countries in which an epidemic has occurred will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 after Coronavirus and societies will have natural, collective immunity.

Greetings,

Dariusz Prokopowicz

Dariusz Prokopowicz many thanks for your contribution which seems to address a phenomenology of how the pandemic will end, and where it may be heading to, with a possible collective immunisation underway.

The question asked here is different: it is about behaviours observed towards contaminating others. Such behaviours in previous pandemics such as the 1348 plague have been documented by Boccacio's "Decameron", and the 1665 plague has been documented by Daniel Defoe's "A Journal of the Plague Year", showing a variety of behaviours from extremely selfish (see Covid19 example of this adviser to the PM in the UK) to extremely altruistic such as the "Charitables of Saint Eloi" from Béthune in Northern France, a secular order brotherhood founded in 1188 to bury people with dignity, whoever they are.

Ref:

-Charitables of St Eloi's generosity

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/the-charitables-french-brotherhood-burying-dead-since-1188

-Covid19 lockdown in the UK, applying to all but a few...

a) Statistics of UK Lockdown Breach fines (14 000)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52674192

b) However, confirmed support from PM for his Brexit brain caught carrying the virus for 260 miles North during the lockdown. Conservative Party Members have asked for his dimissal, and the public has disapproved this behaviour at 69%:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dominic-cummings-petition-sacked-nine-lockdown-coronavirus-durham-a9536026.html

Journalists and citizens wonder if it's a case of Law and rules applying differently for those in power (the "do as I say not as I do" principle?)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/25/cummings-is-the-real-boss-world-press-pours-scorn-on-boris-johnson

-Daniel Defoe, A Journal of the Plague Year (events of 1665)

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/376/376-h/376-h.htm

Boccaccio, The Decameron (events of 1348)

https://www.gutenberg.org/files/23700/23700-h/23700-h.htm

Let me extract from it a description relative to the 1348 pandemic in Florence, Italy, which is not so different from what has been observed in the current Covid19, on human behaviours:

"From these things and many others like unto them or yet stranger divers fears and conceits were begotten in those who abode alive, which well nigh all tended to a very barbarous conclusion, namely, to shun and flee from the sick and all that pertained to them, and thus doing, each thought to secure immunity for himself. Some there were who conceived that to live moderately and keep oneself from all excess was the best defence against such a danger; wherefore, making up their company, they lived removed from every other and shut themselves up in those houses where none had been sick and where living was best; and there, using very temperately of the most delicate viands and the finest wines and eschewing all incontinence, they abode with music and such other diversions as they might have, never suffering themselves to speak with any nor choosing to hear any news from without of death or sick folk. Others, inclining to the contrary opinion, maintained that to carouse and make merry and go about singing and frolicking and satisfy the appetite in everything possible and laugh and scoff at whatsoever befell was a very certain remedy for such an ill. That which they said they put in practice as best they might, going about day and night, now to this tavern, now to that, drinking without stint or measure; and on this wise they did yet more freely in other folk's houses, so but they scented there aught that liked or tempted them, as they might lightly do, for that every one—as he were to live no longer—had abandoned all care of his possessions, as of himself, wherefore the most part of the houses were become common good and strangers used them, whenas they happened upon them, like as the very owner might have done; and with all this bestial preoccupation, they still shunned the sick to the best of their power.

In this sore affliction and misery of our city, the reverend authority of the laws, both human and divine, was all in a manner dissolved and fallen into decay, for [lack of] the ministers and executors thereof, who, like other men, were all either dead or sick or else left so destitute of followers that they were unable to exercise any office, wherefore every one had license to do whatsoever pleased him. Many others held a middle course between the two aforesaid, not straitening themselves so exactly in the matter of diet as the first neither allowing themselves such license in drinking and other debauchery as the second, but using things in sufficiency, according to their appetites; nor did they seclude themselves, but went about, carrying in their hands, some flowers, some odoriferous herbs and other some4 divers kinds of spiceries,[7] which they set often to their noses, accounting it an excellent thing to fortify the brain with such odours, more by token that the air seemed all heavy and attainted with the stench of the dead bodies and that of the sick and of the remedies used.

Some were of a more barbarous, though, peradventure, a surer way of thinking, avouching that there was no remedy against pestilences better than—no, nor any so good as—to flee before them; wherefore, moved by this reasoning and recking of nought but themselves, very many, both men and women, abandoned their own city, their own houses and homes, their kinsfolk and possessions, and sought the country seats of others, or, at the least, their own, as if the wrath of God, being moved to punish the iniquity of mankind, would not proceed to do so wheresoever they might be, but would content itself with afflicting those only who were found within the walls of their city, or as if they were persuaded that no person was to remain therein and that its last hour was come. And albeit these, who opined thus variously, died not all, yet neither did they all escape; nay, many of each way of thinking and in every place sickened of the plague and languished on all sides, well nigh abandoned, having themselves, what while they were whole, set the example to those who abode in health.

Indeed, leaving be that townsman avoided townsman and that well nigh no neighbour took thought unto other and that kinsfolk seldom or never visited one another and held no converse together save from afar, this tribulation had stricken such terror to the hearts of all, men and women alike, that brother forsook brother, uncle nephew and sister brother and oftentimes wife husband; nay (what is yet more extraordinary and well nigh incredible) fathers and mothers refused to visit or tend their very children, as they had not been theirs. By reason whereof there remained unto those (and the number of them, both males and females, was incalculable) who fell sick, none other succour than that which they owed either to the charity of friends (and of these there were few) or the greed of servants, who tended them, allured by high and extravagant wage; albeit, for all this, these latter were not grown many, and those men and women of mean understanding and for the most part unused to such offices, who served for well nigh nought but to reach things called for by the sick or to note when they died; and in the doing of these services many of them perished with their gain.

Of this abandonment of the sick by neighbours, kinsfolk and friends and of the scarcity of servants arose an usage before well nigh unheard, to wit, that no woman, how fair or lovesome or well-born soever she might be, once fallen sick, recked aught of having a man to tend her, whatever he might be, or young or old, and without any shame discovered to him every part of her body, no otherwise than she would have done to a woman, so but the necessity of her sickness required it; the which belike, in those who recovered, was the occasion of lesser modesty in time to come. Moreover, there ensued of this abandonment the death of many who5 peradventure, had they been succoured, would have escaped alive; wherefore, as well for the lack of the opportune services which the sick availed not to have as for the virulence of the plague, such was the multitude of those who died in the city by day and by night that it was an astonishment to hear tell thereof, much more to see it; and thence, as it were of necessity, there sprang up among those who abode alive things contrary to the pristine manners of the townsfolk.

It was then (even as we yet see it used) a custom that the kinswomen and she-neighbours of the dead should assemble in his house and there condole with those who more nearly pertained unto him, whilst his neighbours and many other citizens foregathered with his next of kin before his house, whither, according to the dead man's quality, came the clergy, and he with funeral pomp of chants and candles was borne on the shoulders of his peers to the church chosen by himself before his death; which usages, after the virulence of the plague began to increase, were either altogether or for the most part laid aside, and other and strange customs sprang up in their stead. For that, not only did folk die without having a multitude of women about them, but many there were who departed this life without witness and few indeed were they to whom the pious plaints and bitter tears of their kinsfolk were vouchsafed; nay, in lieu of these things there obtained, for the most part, laughter and jests and gibes and feasting and merrymaking in company; which usance women, laying aside womanly pitifulness, had right well learned for their own safety.

Few, again, were they whose bodies were accompanied to the church by more than half a score or a dozen of their neighbours, and of these no worshipful and illustrious citizens, but a sort of blood-suckers, sprung from the dregs of the people, who styled themselves pickmen[8] and did such offices for hire, shouldered the bier and bore it with hurried steps, not to that church which the dead man had chosen before his death, but most times to the nearest, behind five or six[9] priests, with little light[10] and whiles none at all, which latter, with the aid of the said pickmen, thrust him into what grave soever they first found unoccupied, without troubling themselves with too long or too formal a service.

The condition of the common people (and belike, in great part, of the middle class also) was yet more pitiable to behold, for that these, for the most part retained by hope[11] or poverty in their houses and abiding in their own quarters, sickened by the thousand daily and being altogether untended and unsuccoured, died well nigh all without recourse. Many breathed their last in the open street, whilst other many, for all they died in their houses, made it known to the neighbours that they were dead rather by the stench of their rot6ting bodies than otherwise; and of these and others who died all about the whole city was full. For the most part one same usance was observed by the neighbours, moved more by fear lest the corruption of the dead bodies should imperil themselves than by any charity they had for the departed; to wit, that either with their own hands or with the aid of certain bearers, whenas they might have any, they brought the bodies of those who had died forth of their houses and laid them before their doors, where, especially in the morning, those who went about might see corpses without number; then they fetched biers and some, in default thereof, they laid upon some board or other. Nor was it only one bier that carried two or three corpses, nor did this happen but once; nay, many might have been counted which contained husband and wife, two or three brothers, father and son or the like. And an infinite number of times it befell that, two priests going with one cross for some one, three or four biers, borne by bearers, ranged themselves behind the latter,[12] and whereas the priests thought to have but one dead man to bury, they had six or eight, and whiles more. Nor therefore were the dead honoured with aught of tears or candles or funeral train; nay, the thing was come to such a pass that folk recked no more of men that died than nowadays they would of goats; whereby it very manifestly appeared that that which the natural course of things had not availed, by dint of small and infrequent harms, to teach the wise to endure with patience, the very greatness of their ills had brought even the simple to expect and make no account of. The consecrated ground sufficing not to the burial of the vast multitude of corpses aforesaid, which daily and well nigh hourly came carried in crowds to every church,—especially if it were sought to give each his own place, according to ancient usance,—there were made throughout the churchyards, after every other part was full, vast trenches, wherein those who came after were laid by the hundred and being heaped up therein by layers, as goods are stowed aboard ship, were covered with a little earth, till such time as they reached the top of the trench.

Moreover,—not to go longer searching out and recalling every particular of our past miseries, as they befell throughout the city,—I say that, whilst so sinister a time prevailed in the latter, on no wise therefor was the surrounding country spared, wherein, (letting be the castles,[13] which in their littleness[14] were like unto the city,) throughout the scattered villages and in the fields, the poor and miserable husbandmen and their families, without succour of physician or aid of servitor, died, not like men, but well nigh like beasts, by the ways or in their tillages or about the houses, indifferently by day and night. By reason whereof, growing lax like the townsfolk in their manners and customs, they recked not of any thing or business of theirs; nay, all, as if they looked for death that very day, studied with all their wit, not to help to maturity the future produce of their cattle and their fields and the fruits of their own past toils, but to consume those which were7 ready to hand. Thus it came to pass that the oxen, the asses, the sheep, the goats, the swine, the fowls, nay, the very dogs, so faithful to mankind, being driven forth of their own houses, went straying at their pleasure about the fields, where the very corn was abandoned, without being cut, much less gathered in; and many, well nigh like reasonable creatures, after grazing all day, returned at night, glutted, to their houses, without the constraint of any herdsman.

To leave the country and return to the city, what more can be said save that such and so great was the cruelty of heaven (and in part, peradventure, that of men) that, between March and the following July, what with the virulence of that pestiferous sickness and the number of sick folk ill tended or forsaken in their need, through the fearfulness of those who were whole, it is believed for certain that upward of an hundred thousand human beings perished within the walls of the city of Florence, which, peradventure, before the advent of that death-dealing calamity, had not been accounted to hold so many? Alas, how many great palaces, how many goodly houses, how many noble mansions, once full of families, of lords and of ladies, abode empty even to the meanest servant! How many memorable families, how many ample heritages, how many famous fortunes were seen to remain without lawful heir! How many valiant men, how many fair ladies, how many sprightly youths, whom, not others only, but Galen, Hippocrates or Æsculapius themselves would have judged most hale, breakfasted in the morning with their kinsfolk, comrades and friends and that same night supped with their ancestors in the other world!"

I think it depends on income level of people, religious belief, medical knowledge & advancement, leadership quality of the government, social customs etc. Renaud Di Francesco

Many people do not knowingly care about spreading the virus. Yet even people without symptoms can spread Covid-19. Indeed, infected people who have not shown symptoms can spread the virus and this remains a very worrying problem. This is why social or physical distancing is considered so critical to slowing or reducing the transmission of the virus.

We are mostly considering normally clean settings here...

Whatdo you think about crammed spaces such as: Slums, refugee camps, soccer arenas, airplanes?

Carsten Weerth you are very right. You are raising the crowding effect, I would like to expand here:

1. Indoor

*transport (rush hour in particular: access, transport, exit),

*households locked-down in too small space for them. Slums being an extreme case, but who has a house with a garden and a bathroom per bedroom? If not, there is a likely deterministic contamination by any infectious person in the household within two days.

Article Covid-19: Modelling propagation with Agent Based Models (ABM...

There is a spread of social inequalities leading to variable contagion risk

*shops: This is the scary shopping time if others don't wear masks, go in all directions, too close to you, when shopping for food.

2. Outdoor

Large events such as the Bergamo -Valencia game with 40 000 attendees, the 8 March demonstrations in Spain with 50 000 participants in Barcelona and 120 000 in Madrid.

Please join discussion on CROWDING here:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Covid19_and_housing_overcrowded_versus_comfortable

and discussion on WORK PLACE here:

https://www.researchgate.net/post/Criteria_for_WORK_PLACE_after_Covid19_lockdown

Half of the population

I think sometimes it is ignorance of the highest order. Do you know they are people in my country who still do not believe that there is coronavirus and are not taking any protection measures? There is another lot believing God will protect them from the virus. As hilarious as it sound and despite the deaths, surging cases and community education. Such a pity

Amazing. It's not just ignorance, there are well educated people who are in denial, think they are immune, think that they are protected... Worse than that, there seems to be a group that may deliberately spread it by ignoring the precautions.

Article The burden of COVID-19 in Brazil is greater in areas with hi...

To many, at least in Spain and other European countries: We not only have the "NEGATIONISTS", but also the unsupportive-not a few young people-, the sociopaths who "go through everything" and even several who do it. propagate or try to propagate "KNOWINGLY" (as happened and happens with AIDS) out of sadism, psychopathy or revenge ... IT'S PAINFUL, BUT IT'S TRUE ("eppur si muove")

In Kenya some people put on mask when the see the police and remove after passing the police. This means they know what they are doing but choose not to obey the rules.

HAPPY RESURRECTION EASTER TO ALL CHRISTIANS: OH HAPPY DAY !!

There are horrific stories that circulate of "sick" and "deranged", evil people who showed the least, if any, concern of the possibility of spreading the virus after being infected. Certainly, it has nothing what degree they hold or from which university, no, it is rooted in their evil natures. How many cases the world has witnessed of new born babies infected with AIDS because the parent transmitted it out of some evil affair! In Greece, one sick (in the mind) person who was infected with the Pandemic, caught spitting on the historical sites to spread the virus! They are one of the reasons that made the reported cases in Wuhan become a full-blown pandemic of such magnitude all over the world.

@M.K.Tripathi, I see your answer, which puzzles me:

1) your input text is "that is main resons" and nothing more

2) you get 4 recommendation for this amazing and mind-blowing input.

Can you explain?

1) your input is surprising, the least one could say, it's ambiguous. Can you detail your input?

Maybe this is a very clever answer but to another question.

You probably know the case of "the answer is no. What was the question?"

2) The 5 people in your group = {you, your 4 recommenders)} is probably a very innovative way to benefit from researchgate mechanisms. Am I correct in assuming the genius award winning algorithm "post any answer to any question, and I will recommend it, as long as you do the same for me"

:) :) :) :) :)

5 geniuses joining forces, that's a strong virtual lab.

You have my humble admiration

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/opinion/coronavirus-parties-herd-immunity.amp.html

In Iraq, unfortunately, there is a large group of people who are not committed to preventive measures, spacing and wearing masks, which has led to the spread of the epidemic and an increase in the rates of infected patients, the number of hospitalized patients, as well as the number of deaths ..

In india we are completely ignorant about the relationship between aresol spreading of Covid19 infection through TPM , Smog induced air pollution - https://www.researchgate.net/post/Do_We_belive_that_spreading_death_of_people_by_Covid_19_is_due_to_severe_damage_of_Environmental_Sustainibility

In Algeria the government intentionally allowed people with COVID-19 inside the country for political reasons, mainly to stop the uprising of the people. The strange thing is that COVID-19 infection seems to be related to elections, so every time there is an election, the number of infected people drops drastically. I believe that a deep data analysis will reveal strange patterns in covid-19 spread around the world.

Now it is too some extent Herd immunity and Too some extent vaccination .

So many people don`t care about the spread because there is fatigue.

Most of the people again started the don't care attitude although the danger is still there. Elections, war have aggravated the situation