In the graph bellow you have 2 cluster of countries the one with the high & low deaths (per 100Kp for comparison reasons). Can you identify the reasons which are behind this difference: the main discriminant. To name few ex 1. early lockdown, 2. System of health care, 3. age of population, 4. climate (sun and UVa), please go on for your self to discuss which might be the most important for this huge difference.
I think that the next factors are most important:
1) weather and climatic conditions - cold weather as a factor for the dramatic rise of deposition of inhaled pollutants - (see the link below)
2) Air pollution (PM and NOX) -
3) Specific geometric structure of upper airways in different population -- "nose as an effective defense mechanism"
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Article Influence of weather and seasonal variations in temperature ...
Preprint Age- and gender-related changes in the upper airways correla...
Alex
Thanks Alex for the contribution Do you think that these factors differ significantly between the countries of the 2 clusters. Keep in mind that discrimination is static and longitudinal. D y have measures for these countries.
I think that there is a difference in the epidemic process: somewhere the epidemic is at the beginning, somewhere in the middle, and somewhere it is coming to an end ... for the full picture we need to wait for the end of the epidemic .. I believe that this will require at least one year... /// moreover we are waiting for the start of the epidemic in the southern hemisphere from the end of May - perhaps important data will be obtained for analysis. /// in fact, I don’t understand the difference in today's mortality data — like so many scientists do. - it would be interesting to look at demographic statistics in death and hospitalizations by all country
hospitalisation in Greece its worster than Spain eventhough deaths are much lower
1. exponential growth of Ro 1->2 prevails ONLY at the start of the epidemic!! thats the Greek "time effect of lockdown"
2. In Greece many people over 50 take tremendous quantities and variability of drags for osteoporosis, cardiac issues, pressure etc.. This all have a combined effect on the over the 50age people which is the high risk group. "The drag portfolio effect"
3. the "inert" cluster of "Tsiordas thesis" are people younger than 30's (20-30%) and this is a strong quay to pandemic transmission.
4. Sun's Ultraviolet!! countries with latitudes between 30-50 degrees above or below the equator
Dear Petros Theodorou , may I ask you to give me a link to statistics on hospitalization rate in Europe .
PS
I found that tests on the COVID-19 in different countries do differently: in somewhere everyone are tested - but in some countries like Sweden only the people with symptoms are tested.
Alex
https://gateway.euro.who.int/en/indicators/hfa_535-6011-number-of-all-hospital-discharges/ and https://www.reportlinker.com/market-report/Hospitality/501857/Hospitality?utm_source=adwords1&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Tourism&utm_adgroup=Hospitality_Industry_Statistics&gclid=Cj0KCQjw17n1BRDEARIsAFDHFewMICo9jmWbiMIo9KK5De7dPS2mAm6-1rF7p33cny0VQBpQk2vYpicaAnDMEALw_wcB
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/why-has-eastern-europe-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west
CNN: Why is Russia's Covid-19 mortality rate so low?.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/opinions/russia-low-covid-19-mortality-rate-sepkowitz/index.html
Atmospheric Pollution Effect make sense: https://www.tovima.gr/2020/05/16/society/koronoios-pos-syndeetai-i-atmosfairiki-rypansi-me-tin-thnisimotita/
on the #CNN: Why is Russia's Covid-19 mortality rate so low?.
I, as a witness from Russia, confirm the conclusion that statistic on the COVID-19 in russia is product of political calculations.
We once discussed the possibility of monitoring influenza statistics in Russia - and we abandoned this idea - because at every medical center - disease counts are careless - it seemed to me that in some regions leaders are personally responsible for exceeding statistical indicators. earlier this month, the press wrote that the head of a small Siberian village was filmed, where the first case of a coronovirus was detected. It is clear that it is difficult to confirm the reasons without official data, but nevertheless for several years we have called off attempts to work with statistical data in Russia.
Currently, we do not observe problems with coronovirus in the regions of Russia - there are few cases with pneumonia and coronovirus, although it is worth noting that there was a surge in pneumonia in 2019
In your opinion, is there any other reason why we had such a small dispersion in our country or did we do so well just because of the measures?
I find the theory of cross-protection very interesting. Pre-existing cross-immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses may have played a role in population protection in Greece, and possibly in other countries. Of course, this will require targeted future studies, but I would not be surprised if this is the case.
Reference: https://www.tovima.gr/2020/06/15/society/mosialos-oi-ioi-einai-aprovleptoi/
I think that a comparison (death rate and critical ill paients -- ) should be made with other regions with a similar climate - for example, Sicily and etc. - that is, to compare not with the whole country but with the region. Influencing factors: 1 temperature below 20C / 2 Air pollution PM 2.5 / and probably sunny days in the region // I think the theory of cross-protection is interesting -- but this is a hypothesis and it’s not entirely clear to me what facts are based on - and we need to wait for the real test data. //
What do you think about large-scale vaccination of Greek residents with BCG vaccine against COVID-19? I met studies that show that BCG does not help ...