SIR models have served as a valuable tool to make decisions during Covid-19 time. In fact, as the pandemic marches on and the estimation of SIR model parameters become more accurate, they will give a better idea of how the virus spread and whether taken measures were successful or not.
My question is: once Covid-19 pandemic ends, what kind of studies could be done based on SIR models? what kinds of predictions become relevant to be studied after a pandemic? what are the tasks modelers could perform?
The SIR model for simulation/scientific modelling to enable prediction of volumes of COVID19 pandemic spread needs consideration of certain social elements and further to find numerical trends of these elements via a scientific conversion methodology such as data collection and analysis. The following social elements can be helping;
1- Inter and intra boundaries migration's of people
2- Food habits of individual's/community's
3- Living habitats nature
4- Employment/ Business practice
5- Education and its effectiveness for individuals
6- Environmental immunity
development/response of
community's
These are some elements which may be contributing to spread of pandemic.
Following are some preventive factors;
1- Provisions for local Education
facilities to prevent traveling.
2- Provisions for local business opportunity's to minimise traveling
3- Provisions for local employment opportunities to prevent traveling
4- No to lavish lifestyle
5- Developing cultures of homely
celebrations
These elements needed to get monitored with strict implementation for atleast three to five years post COVID19 situations.
Following link may be helpful :
https://www.elsevier.com/life-sciences/journals/modelling-epidemics-the-maths-behind-disease-outbreaks
Dear Rekha Bhatia ,
I encourage you to take a look at the following material:
https://www.researchgate.net/post/Covid-19-Mathematics_to_understand_the_pandemic_dynamics
Then you will gain a deep understanding of how SIR models work and to interpret the results you found.
Regards
The model, SIR is a very basic model use for disease transmission dynamics. SIR model was invented by Kermack and McKendrick. Mathematical Modelling is based on this simple model and all the models are the derivatives of SIR, such as SEIR, SEITR, SEIRD, S_h E_h I_h R_h S_v E_v I_v R_v, S_h I_h R_h S_v I_v R_v, etc. As we know that a single model may be used for many physical phenomena. But it depends on the Simulation and interpretation of the model. In this link
Article ANALYTIC APPROXIMATE SOLUTION OF RABIES TRANSMISSION DYNAMIC...
shows the solution of the model for Rabies Transmission from vector to human, where we called the disease pathogen a "Vector" in Mathematical Biology. Therefore, we can use this model (SIR) and model this for many phenomena, by modifying and taking such parameters represent factors of the phenomena.