Mainstream economics neglected the role of positive checks namely, disease, warfare, famine and environment in determining economic outcomes. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) affected more than 190 countries over the world and there are a national emergency and lockdown in most of countries. Don't you think this is the right time to incorporate pandemic and other positive checks into the mainstream economic analysis?
COVID-19 will have short-term and long-term effects on global economy
COVID-19 pandemic is having immediate effect on economy by hitting airlines, cruise-ships, tourism, building, railways, not to mention hunger and starvation resulting from lock-downs. All the countries are also grappling with increased expenses on health-care and relief packages or unemployment allowances. Worst affected are the third-world countries that may reach the point of bankruptcy if the debt-servicing is not delayed by donor agencies.
Loss of human power will have long-term consequences on GDP, reduction in growth rates, with increase in number of people globally living under poverty line.
Further reading:
1. https://www.spglobal.com/en/research-insights/articles/global-credit-conditions-covid-19-s-darkening-shadow
2. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm
3. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2020/646195/EPRS_BRI(2020)646195_EN.pdf
4. https://hbr.org/2020/03/what-coronavirus-could-mean-for-the-global-economy
Pandemic matters considering the crisis in public health sector across the world which occasioned hundreds of thousands of deaths, reduced global work force and aged population as a result of deaths, distorted global economy and globalisation dynamics, accelerated unplanned spending in public heath to contain the pandemic, heightened conspiracy theory/suspicion among the powerful nations, adverse effects of lock-down on nations' Gross National Product- financial value of their losses, provision of palliatives to families/households, and the emerging threat to public safety, security and order in some very poor nations welfare packages are insufficient as a result of long days of lock-down because most households livelihoods in such nations depend on daily hustling.
The above scenario are indications that the world would witness economic recession in a post COVID-19 era in a short-term period if well managed and would be longer if mismanaged.
I agree that the pandemic spread of deseases / situation is underscored in global security/economic analysis, yet.
I am a contributor to the biggest German Economic Enceclopedia GABLER Wirtschaftslexikon and must read today that we have the Word VIRUS but only in terms of a computer virus...
There is a total lack of awareness and I am a molecular biologist, economist and legal expert...
Today I created: Pandemie (Pandemic), Zoonosis, Influenca-Virus and Corona-Virus (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 and COVID-19-Pandimie are available already)...
Unfortunately yes, the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 on the global economy is very large. The high probability of potential recession of the global economy and in many countries in 2020 is currently estimated. Well, in 2020 it is no longer trade wars that will be the main factor in the decline in international trade, international capital flows and other factors of production, international economic cooperation. In 2020, the main factor behind the decline in international trade, international capital flows and other production factors, international economic cooperation, etc. will be the development of the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic. Therefore, international cooperation in the framework of conducted research and implementation, improvement of techniques and solutions of security systems in order to limit the development of a pandemic is necessary. It should be hoped that thanks to the cooperation and consistent application of certain public safety measures (e.g. home quarantine, wearing protective masks, etc.) and conducted research, the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus pandemic causing Covid-19 disease finally begins to regress and decrease. I invite you to scientific cooperation.
Regards.
Dariusz Prokopowicz
Technical Report WCO and IMO on COVID-19: Joint statement on the integrity of...
… an expansion of the existing employment support package for young adults ...
Loayza, N. V., & Pennings, S. (2020). Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19: A Primer for Developing Countries.
...Policy responses by central banks and treasuries ...
McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2020). 3 The economic impact of COVID-19. Economics in the Time of COVID-19, 45.
... promote independent analysis and public discussion of open economies ...
Fornaro, L., & Wolf, M. (2020). Covid-19 coronavirus and macroeconomic policy.
… an expansion of the existing employment support package for young adults ...
Loayza, N. V., & Pennings, S. (2020). Macroeconomic Policy in the Time of COVID-19: A Primer for Developing Countries.
...Policy responses by central banks and treasuries ...
McKibbin, W., & Fernando, R. (2020). 3 The economic impact of COVID-19. Economics in the Time of COVID-19, 45.
... The coronavirus pandemic is likely to lead to a steep, and potentially protracted, economic downturn. In response, many countries have implemented ambitious packages to support households and businesses ...
Bénassy-Quéré, A., Boot, A., Fatás, A., Fratzscher, M., Fuest, C., Giavazzi, F., & SCHOENMAKER, D. (2020). Corporate debt burdens threaten economic recovery after COVID-19: Planning for debt restructuring should start now. VOX CEPR Policy Portal [21/03/2020]. Disponível em:. Acesso em, 2(04).
… Essential services should remain operational and governments should put in place social and economic policies ...
World Health Organization. (2020). Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): situation report, 72.
Sure, " While the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread worldwide, fringe groups and violent extremists, including white supremacists, are pointing to ‘theories’ and works of fiction in an effort to motivate individuals to take violent action. " Please read more here: https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-white-supremacists-and-the-weaponization-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19/
Obviously..
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/global-economy-could-shrink-by-almost-1-in-2020-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-united-nations/articleshow/74943235.cms
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/24/coronavirus-pandemics-impact-on-the-global-economy-in-7-charts.html
https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/05/1064032
https://www.euronews.com/amp/2020/05/20/coronavirus-how-much-is-the-world-economy-expected-to-shrink